Climate legislation and Congress: the current state of play

My last substantial post of last year was a summary of where
things stand with Congress and climate. I ended by reiterating my
confidence that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who has been such an
impediment throughout the process, would find his way to
supporting some form of the Build Back Better Act, the Democrats’
last and only hope of taking substantial action on climate
change.


Mere days later, Manchin threw up his hands and said, “I can’t
get there — this is a No on this legislation.” So much for that
prediction.


However! As we head into 2022, there are signs that Manchin’s
tantrum was less apocalyptic than it appeared.


His objection to BBB — which, to be fair, was his objection for
months; the Democrats just thought they could eventually get
through to him — is that the bill contains a bunch of new
programs that are only funded for a year, or a few years, and
since they will inevitably be renewed (according to Manchin), the
bill’s price tag is deceptive. He wants to include only programs
that are funded for the full 10-year term of the bill, under the
artificial budget cap he himself imposed.


That would mean stripping a number of popular programs out of the
bill. The process blew up because the other Democrats refused to
believe that he was serious about doing so much damage to the
legislation. However, as Eric Levitz writes in New York magazine,
as anachronistic, stupid, and cruel as Manchin’s views are, he’s
not willing to move on them. For any bill to pass, it will have
to conform.


Insofar as there’s any good news in this young year, it is that
Manchin seems positively disposed toward the climate portions of
the bill. “The climate thing is one that we probably can come to
an agreement much easier than anything else,” he told reporters
on Tuesday. Other Democrats have expressed confidence that the
climate portion of the bill will survive in some form.


This is in part because Manchin already stripped the bill of any
sticks, anything that might penalize fossil fuels (most notably
the Clean Electricity Performance Program). What’s left are $555
billion worth of carrots: grants, tax breaks, and other money
showered on every form of clean energy, from R&D through
demonstration projects through commercialization — very much
including carbon capture at fossil fuel power plants, a Manchin
fave. “There’s a lot of good things in there,” he said.


Somewhat oddly, Manchin also supports some of the reforms to
federal oil and gas leasing that are in the House version of the
BBB.


All of this seems to at least imply that he’s still open to some
kind of bill. What he appears to want is a version of the BBB
that, at a minimum, strips out the Child Tax Credit — which can
not possibly fit under his cap on spending ($1.75 trillion), at
least not when funded for 10 years, at least not if the bill is
to contain anything else.


The Child Tax Credit kept millions of children out of poverty
last year and could potentially cut child poverty by almost half.
It ran out at the end of the year, and now at least 50,000
children in West Virginia stand to slip back into poverty.
Manchin is choosing to allow millions of children to suffer a
little more based on vague and ill-founded worries about
inflation. It’s ghoulish and unforgivable.


Nonetheless, it is what it is, so Democrats will need to put
together a diminished form of the BBB that protects the climate
provisions. They still need to try; the stakes are too high not
to. “If they can’t pull this off, then we failed,” John Podesta
told The New York Times. “The country has failed the climate
test.”


There are no signs of any such efforts thus far. “There is no
negotiation going on at this time,” Manchin said on Tuesday, the
same day Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said, “I've
talked to Sen. Manchin numerous times during the break.” Oof.


Still, also on Tuesday, a group of senators expressed renewed
determination to get the climate portions of the bill over the
finish line. "We're going to get this done, come hell or high
water,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI), “and right now, we have
both hell and high water."


"Frustration isn't a strategy,” said Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN), in
what I can only interpret as a direct attack on yours truly. “We
have to get it done."


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The senators even made a point of noting that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema
(D-AZ), who has been such a problem on other parts of the bill,
is “nothing but supportive of the climate provisions here," as
Schatz put it.


Schumer, as usual, seems determined to press on. He said, “I
intend to hold a vote in the Senate on BBB, and we’ll keep voting
until we get a bill passed.” Good, I guess?


Meanwhile, what Senate Dems are actually moving forward on is
some kind of filibuster reform or exemption intended to enable
them to pass a voting rights bill without Republicans. In a
letter to colleagues, Schumer said:


Over the coming weeks, the Senate will once again consider how to
perfect this union and confront the historic challenges facing
our democracy. We hope our Republican colleagues change course
and work with us. But if they do not, the Senate will debate and
consider changes to Senate rules on or before January 17, Martin
Luther King Jr. Day.


Here, again, Schumer seems confident he can move Manchin and
Sinema, despite no sign from either that they are willing to
budge. "Anytime there's a carve out, you eat the whole turkey,”
said Manchin. He said he would rather exhaust his ability to
negotiate with Republicans, and from all indications, his
capacity to negotiate with Republicans is infinite.


Meanwhile, there’s been no word about any of this from Sinema,
who was last on record opposing any changes to the filibuster.


At least for now, there’s no reason to think that this isn’t just
wheel-spinning symbolism, which is going to delay moving forward
on BBB.


On the other hand, the fate of the republic is at stake, so maybe
a little symbolism is warranted. If Manchin and Sinema think the
filibuster is more important than the right of every American to
vote, let them say so affirmatively and publicly, on the record.


On the other other hand, the fate of the atmosphere is also at
stake, and if Democrats dump all over Manchin for blocking
filibuster reform, it might piss him off and make him even more
recalcitrant on BBB.


In the coming weeks and months, there will be votes on both these
bills and we will have a much better sense of where things stand.
The path to (some measure of) success, on climate or much of
anything else, is narrow and getting narrower, but it isn’t
closed off yet.


In the meantime, we begin the year where we ended the last one:
in deep uncertainty and anxiety, as matters of unfathomable
significance are decided by a small handful of vain old white
guys. So much fun.


Anyway, I apologize to the political obsessives on the list — I
suspect there are quite a few of you — if you knew all this stuff
already. I thought it would be worth getting everyone on the same
page, with a clear view of the stakes.


I’ll be back next week with some wonkery and a very fun podcast
guest.


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