Which technologies get cheaper over time, and why?

In 2021, a group of Scholars at Oxford University published a
paper that made big waves in the energy world. It argued that key
clean energy technologies — wind, solar, batteries, and
electrolyzers — are on learning curves which guarantee that, if
they are deployed at the scale required to reach zero carbon,
they will get extremely cheap.


This is, as they say, big if true. In September, I had one of the
lead authors, Doyne Farmer, on Volts to discuss the paper
in-depth. He made a convincing case for the paper’s thesis, but
when I asked him why these technologies were on learning curves
and others weren't, he could only speculate.


That's the question that's been on my mind ever since. Why are
some clean-energy technologies getting rapidly cheaper while
others aren't? What is it about particular technologies that make
them amenable to learning curves?


I cast that question to the academic gods, and lo, they returned
with a paper, and that paper is what we’re here to discuss today.
It’s called “Accelerating Low-Carbon Innovation,” by Abhishek
Malhotra of the School of Public Policy at the Indian Institute
of Technology in New Delhi, India, and Tobias Schmidt of the
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Switzerland.


It sets out to chart technologies against two basic axes: design
complexity and need for customization. That creates a schema that
can help illuminate why some technologies developed quicker than
others.


I don't want to say much more than that, since I have my Malhotra
and Schmidt here with me to help explain.


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