Michel Cousins: THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD TO PEACE IN LIBYA

Gudrun Harrer in conversation with Michel Cousins





THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD TO PEACE IN LIBYA





Libya, 14 years after the overthrow of the regime of Muammar
al-Gaddafi, is a country shattered by war, internal divisions and
power plays of external actors. The national wealth like oil
ressources which should guarantee economic success, and social
stability and development, remains contested and is distributed
along lines of political affiliation. The UN-led process to unify
the power centres of Tripoli in the West and Benghazi in the East
was supposed to create united institutions but was inconclusive.
Elections are on the agenda, but many fear the results could
exacerbate the rivalry and ignite a new round of conflict, as
they did in 2014. It is impossible to understand the set up of
Libyan politics and society without looking at the history and
social makeup of today’s Libya, which Michel Cousins calls a
“community of communities” – which, however, can be of very
different nature, like tribal, regional or related to towns or
neighborhoods. Another important source of legitimacy is military
power. People accepted Gaddafi, as they now accept Khalifa Haftar
in the East, because he was/is in control. Can – or how can –
Libya stay united as a state and not turn to a military
dictatorship with one strong man on top? The answer would be some
sort of devolved – federal? – system in which there is a
nominal head of state (possibly even a constitutional monarch)
but one in which the communities have a voice. Only then also
elections can work.





The European Union, too, has a strong interest in a stable and
prosperous Libya which during the last years has developed into a
transit country for African immigration to Europe and a hub for
modern slavery mafias that commit terrible crimes and human
rights violations. The EU’s cooperation with Libyan authorities
and other political or military forces on migration issues has
been criticized by NGO’s as morally bankruptcy. Can we do better
to support Libya’s civil society on the democratic aspirations?



Michel Cousins, analyst and writer on Libya





Gudrun Harrer, Senior Editor, Der Standard;
Lecturer in Modern History and Politics of the Middle East at the
University of Vienna and the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna