FEEDSTUFFS PRECISION PORK Market Report - May 8

These are difficult times for plant operators as they try their
best to guess what numbers they might hit for a day. They are
often finding themselves starting their day not knowing what kill
numbers will look like and, for that matter, if enough workers
will even show up to run their line, says Provimi market analyst
Dave Bauer.


The run rates for this past week, and through this past Monday,
started off down 9% from the previous Monday. Tuesday was up 7%,
Wednesday up slightly over a 17% and Thursday was up 12.5%. With
some other capacity estimated to come online Friday and Saturday,
Bauer estimates this week’s kill would be a 15% increase over
last week and a large step in the right direction for pork
exports.

In this episode, we also take a look at this week’s double whammy
for pork weekly exports. Weekly net exports of 47,500 metric tons
fell 6% below that of last week and 1% below the four-week
average. China's 40,200 metric tons was 85% of that total. What
about the cutout? Bauer explains that as well. 


Estimated returns for today's market hogs based on returns to the
CMI index sit around a $10 to $15 per head loss if producers can
get them killed. Average profitability over the next 12 months
has now risen to a loss of $10 per head, which is a great
improvement from the monthly per head losses of $35 per head seen
just a few weeks ago. 

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be
well-prepared. If you have questions on this week's recap or want
to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE
at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Thanks for listening and make
sure you plan today for tomorrow’s success.

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