FEEDSTUFFS PRECISION PORK Market Report – August 14

Today’s markets are dealing with many varied and unforeseen
influences, says Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for
Provimi.

For example, Bauer points out that back in the spring, when COVID
was first unfolding, the fear of the unknown put the weekly
average cutout price in a three-week tailspin, down 32%. Then as
hoarding became a thing, there came a 115% rally in just five
weeks. Over the next seven weeks when people stopped hoarding
toilet paper and meat long enough to realize how unwarranted
their actions had been, the cutout fell to a secondary low.
Current trends, as we know them, definitely for 2020, provide no
predictive value when it comes to predicting what’s ahead. In
fact, Bauer says as you're comparing to prior years, don't use
2020 as part of an average. This is similar to when we would
leave 2014 out of an average because it was such an
outlier. 

Speaking of trends, weekly pork exports this past week are
starting to reflect a trend, but it's not a favorable trend, says
Bauer. Net pork sales on Thursday, were only 10,500 metric tons,
down 66% from last week and down 70% versus the four-week
average. Mexico took 84% of that total. The biggest concern of
this trend that's building, he notes, is the lack of China
purchases over the past couple of weeks. In this episode, Bauer
explains what’s behind all of that.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be
well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want
to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE
at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for
tomorrow’s success.


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