FEEDSTUFFS PRECISION PORK Market Report – September 18

The autumn season is knocking on the door and officially gets
started Sept. 22, just before the third quarter hogs and pigs
report next Thursday.

In this segment of Feedstuffs Precision Pork, Provimi
senior market analyst David Bauer tells us what to expect in that
report, including a reduced breeding herd. As he points out,
USDA’s weekly sow harvest continues to run strong and this has
been the catalyst to discussions what this will mean for the sow
herd come Sept. 24. 

Bauer notes that the June report alerted us that fall farrowing
intention decisions made through spring and summer when values
were in the low, mid and upper $40 range, were to farrow 5% less
this fall. Over the past several weeks conversations put
estimates either side of 200,000 fewer sows than last year at
this time. If that 200,000 drop were to happen, it would be down
about a 100,000 sows, or 1.5% from last quarter. Many of these
decisions were made during times of dismal futures and dismal
financial the conditions, and although the conditions haven't
changed, what will the recent rally and hog future values do to
the sentiment as we come into the report? Take a listen. Bauer
explains.


A quick note on African swine fever in Germany. It was reported
that four wild boar carcasses were found and one live pig shot
that all tested positive. The first case found was of a female
wild boar, which is significant. Female typically run in groups
consist of three to four females and all their piglets. The
significance here is that the dead female likely had contact with
several pigs, and that is of concern when realizing that ASF is
spread through contact with other pigs. Males typically lead more
isolated lives and present less of the spread risk.

On pork exports this week, net weekly sales were a very large
50,600 metric tons, 68% over last week and 41% over the four-week
average. Per the chart, Bauer is calling it the third largest
weekly sale this year. What’s the word on profitability? Bauer
fills us in. 


As Bauer points out, these are uncertain times and it will pay
dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this
week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free
to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com.
Plan today for tomorrow’s success.


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