FEEDSTUFFS PRECISION PORK Market Report – November 20

It's the season for that time-honored tradition of getting out
the turkey fryer. Although this year travel restrictions will
likely reduce the group size at the table, Provimi senior market
analyst David Bauer encourages you all to take time to prepare
your own personal feast of celebration and maybe even to consider
pork as an option. He’s just not sure how exactly that loin will
cook up in the fryer. 

The accumulated slaughter over the past five weeks has averaged
2.688 million head, according to Bauer. Over that period, the
average weekday kill has been 485,760 head. The first four days
this week averaged 491,500 head, but the three-week average for
Friday has been just over 483,000 head. So, let's say we're able
to reach 480,000 head Friday and right now Saturday is estimated
at 279,000 head that would produce a 2.75 million head kill for
the week. Unless USDA comes back with adjustments on Monday due
to plant or labor issues, Bauer believes that should stick.
Weights were up 1.5 lb. last week, as year-to-date slaughter
remains 1% over last year with pork production 1.8% over last
year. Bauer believes non-holiday weeks into yearend could remain
either side of 2.7 million head per week, unless there are issues
around plant or plant labor due to COVID concerns. New pork sales
fell 22% from last week.


China has slowed down on new purchases and Bauer thinks we need
to get used to that. Although year to date accumulated shipments
and outstanding sales are currently 118% of last year, he said we
won't see those kinds of numbers in 2021 as herd growth in China
and a gradual increase in pork production is anticipated.

What’s ahead for profitability? Bauer explains.

These are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be
well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want
to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE
at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for
tomorrow’s success.


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