CONFLICTED

What does the future hold for the Middle East — and the world — in 2026? In this special episode of Conflicted, Thomas instructs Aimen to peer into his crystal ball and offer his forecasts for the year to come. In this episode, Aimen and Thomas discuss: How professional geopolitical analysts make forecasts The impossibility of foreseeing Black Swan events Why an end to the war in Ukraine could reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics The likelihood of a U.S. war against the Houthis in Yemen Renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon The strategic importance of the Gulf states Iran’s nuclear programme, proxy network, and the risk of renewed confrontation Add your predictions to your 2026 Forecast Card here: https://forms.gle/sMCbRFmFTBdcfEDd8  Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas speaks with Lorenzo Vidino, Director of the Programme on Extremism at The George Washington University. What happens when an ideological movement is neither a terrorist organisation nor an ordinary religious group — but something in between? One of the world’s leading experts on the Muslim Brotherhood explains… The early history of Islam in America The first Brotherhood-linked students arriving in the U.S. in the 50s and 60s The formation of the first American Brotherhood cells The Brotherhood’s gradual institutional influence across the 80s and 90s Why CAIR (the Council on American-Islamic Relations) is so controversial Germany’s three-fold classification system and what the U.S. can learn from it Follow Lorenzo on: X, BlueSky, LinkedIn, and YouTube.  Check out his books: The New Muslim Brotherhood in the West (Columbia University Press, 2010) The Closed Circle: Joining and Leaving the Muslim Brotherhood in the West (Columbia University Press, 2020). Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Middle East is shifting again, and fast. In this wide-ranging overview, Aimen and Thomas break down the hidden forces reshaping the geopolitical chessboard as 2025 draws to a close. In this episode, Aimen and Thomas uncover: The power of Saudi Arabia’s discovery of vast rare-earth reserves The U.S.–Saudi grand bargain Why the F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia rattled Israel and what it means for the future of the Abraham Accords Iran’s deepening water crisis and Gulf states’ preparations for instability The simmering tensions between India and Pakistan Afghanistan’s compounded crises Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this Conflicted Conversation, Thomas speaks with Conservative MP Tom Tugendhat about the Muslim Brotherhood. What happens when a Western democracy encounters an ideological movement it no longer has the language — or the institutions — to understand? The former Security Minister and long-time observer of the Middle East explains what the Brotherhood is, how it operates, and why the British state is struggling to deal with it. In this episode, Thomas questions Tom about… Tom’s time in Egypt during the Arab Spring His conversations with Brotherhood members The UK government’s secretive 2014 review of the Brotherhood a nd why Parliament challenged it The institutional blind spots inside Whitehall and MI5 How Brotherhood-linked networks operate in Britain today Why talking openly about the Brotherhood is so politically and legally fraught Strategies for the UK government to tackle the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/  Subscribe to Tom Tugendhat’s Substack here: https://tomtugendhat.substack.com/  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices