ISA Briefing: Working backwards: Dealing with unprecedented policy uncertainty

A reader waking up from a quarter-long slumber on April 1, 2025
would be forgiven for confusing the headlines for an April Fools’
Day prank. They would scan the news and see stories about:


• large tariffs alternately announced, rescinded, delayed and
reintroduced at a breakneck pace (see LaSalle Macro
Quarterly, or LMQ, p. 4);
• US equities in correction territory as ex-US markets, including
even China’s, outperform (LMQ p. 25); 
• increasing calls that the risk of a US recession is rising
(LMQ p. 20); and 
• substantial upward revisions in forecasts of
long-term European GDP growth (LMQ p. 21). 


Each of these is at least partly (and in some cases completely)
contrary to expectations from the beginning of this year. But the
quick reversal in the economic narrative is no April
1st joke. The post-election consensus of a supercharged US
economy pulling ahead of the rest of the world has clearly been
challenged, if not upended. 


In this period of elevated policy uncertainty, real estate
investors should focus on what they can and should do amidst all
the noise. At the risk of stating the obvious, we think it helps
to take a step back and break down the analysis into three basic
steps of incorporating news flow into investment strategy — the
what, the so what, and action steps. But as we will discuss, the
first two are characterized by so much uncertainty that it is
also helpful to start from the end and work
backwards, asking: What can investors do to improve
their chances of successfully navigating this environment
regardless of what happens?





Contributors:


Brian Klinksiek


Global Head of Research and Strategy


Petra Blazkova


Managing Director, Research and Strategy