S9 Ep58: Iran’s Nuclear Future and Why Bombs Won’t Stop it with Joe Cirincione

Matt is joined by nonproliferation expert Joe Cirincione to
unpack what the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran actually
achieved—and what they didn’t. They discuss the extent of the
damage to Iran’s nuclear program, why military action alone can’t
stop a country from getting the bomb, and what a viable
diplomatic path forward might look like. Joe breaks down the
technical realities of uranium enrichment and covert weapons
development, explores whether Iran now has the intent as well as
the capability to build a nuclear weapon, and explains how this
crisis risks pushing the world back toward nuclear anarchy. They
also consider what future proliferators might be learning from
the Iran case, and what comes next for the global arms control
regime.

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Additional reading for the episode

"Iran and the Changing Character of the Nonproliferation Regime"
by Joseph Rodgers | Center for Strategic & International
Studies:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-and-changing-character-nonproliferation-regime


"Disruption or Dismantlement: Diverging Assessments of Iran
Nuclear Strikes" by Bailey Schiff | CSIS Next-Generation Nuclear
Network:
https://nuclearnetwork.csis.org/disruption-or-dismantlement-diverging-assessments-of-iran-nuclear-strikes/


"Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli and US
Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities" by David Albright, Spencer
Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team | Institute for Science &
International Security:
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/post-attack-assessment-of-the-first-12-days-of-israeli-strikes-on-iranian-nuclear-facilities


"Going for the Bomb: Part I, Pathways and Timelines" by David
Albright | Institute for Science & International Security:
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/going-for-the-bomb-part-i-pathways-and-timelines


"Going for the Bomb: Part II, Tasks to Make a Crude Nuclear
Weapon" by David Albright and Andrea Stricker | Institute for
Science & International Security:
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/going-for-the-bomb-part-ii-tasks-to-make-a-crude-nuclear-weapon


"Iran Suspends Cooperation With UN Nuclear Watchdog" by Erika
Solomon and Sanam Mahoozi | The New York Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-iaea.html


"Pentagon Says US Strike Delayed Iran’s Nuclear Program by Up to
Two Years" by Lara Seligman and Michael R. Gordon | The Wall
Street Journal:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/pentagon-says-u-s-strike-delayed-irans-nuclear-program-by-up-to-two-years-8d51eb81


"What Is the Iran Nuclear Deal?" by Kali Robinson | Council on
Foreign Relations:
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal

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