The Illusion of Knowledge

Howard Marks has long questioned the value of macro forecasts,
but in his latest memo, he explains why creating profitable
forecasts is so difficult. He discusses the incredible
complexity involved in modeling an economy and makes it clear
that forecasting mostly provides the illusion of
knowledge. He argues that investors are better off accepting
reality — that the macro future is largely unknowable — and
focusing on what they can know. 


The memo is read by LJ Ganser.


You can read the memo here
(https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-illusion-of-knowledge).