Batteries, Energy Lysenkoism, and Geopolitics feat. Mark P. Mills

Intermittent weather-dependent sources of electricity need backup
storage to compensate for gaps in production. Elon Musk has
promised that Solar + Powerall batteries ensure that your home
will never lose power. In this episode, returning guest Mark P.
Mills breaks down the concept of energy storage, the physical
requirements and limitations of our current storage technologies,
and what to expect in the future.


Batteries will play an important role in the future of the grid
and will continue to improve. However, the laws of physics and
chemistry dampen some of the magical thinking that surrounds
batteries, putting limits on their efficiency and energy density
as well as demanding dramatic increases in mining if lithium-ion
batteries are chosen for grid-scale storage.


In a purely wind/solar grid, storage must be able to bridge
days-long periods without sun or wind, which occur several times
per decade in North America. Currently, all the grid-scale
lithium battery storage in the U.S. could keep the country
powered for just 20 seconds.


This contributes to the economic reality that battery storage is
unlikely ever to be cost-competitive with the storage of fossil
fuels. While wealthy nations may be able to afford to go further
down the path of a "green energy" transition, these costs will be
prohibitive for poor countries. The fragilization of the grid and
the crises of reliability that are beginning to impact states
with a high penetration of wind and solar, like California, are
beginning to create some of the characteristics of a third-world
grid, such as a skyrocketing demand for gasoline backup
generators (learn more about Nigeria's backup generator
situation:
https://www.energyforgrowth.org/memo/the-love-hate-relationship-with-self-generation).
This is an impending disaster for a state pursuing an "electrify
everything" agenda. 


An outcome of the high costs and impracticality of using
batteries to back up intermittent generation is that grids with
high renewable penetration have built parallel generation
portfolios: one low-carbon, and the other, in the absence of
abundant hydro or nuclear, dominated by fossil fuels. 


The renewables portfolio spares some fossil fuels, but it doesn't
displace the need for maintaining fossil generators to run when
it's not windy or sunny. This is why Germany, despite spending
500 billion euros on renewables, has kept 70% of its
coal-dominated fossil fleet and is continuing to build natural
gas infrastructure such as the Nordstream 2 pipeline.


Dr. Keefer and Mills also reflect on the timescales of innovation
and the (un)likelihood of achieving ambitious 2030
decarbonization goals; the concept of "energy Lysenkoism"; the
geopolitics of China's energy policy; and Mills' forthcoming
book, The Cloud Revolution.


Mark P. Mills is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a
faculty fellow at Northwestern University’s McCormick School of
Engineering and Applied Science, where he co-directs an Institute
on Manufacturing Science and Innovation.


Apologies for connectivity issues throughout the interview that
garbled some of the audio.