Sayonara Nuclear? Japan’s Energy Transitions

I am joined by Yuriy Humber, founder of Japan NRG, to discuss
Japan’s complex relationship with nuclear technology and its
energy issues past and present. The first and only wartime victim
of atomic weapons, it went on to embrace nuclear energy for
peaceful purposes, becoming a world leader in the manufacture of
nuclear technology and relying on it for 30% of its electricity
before turning against nuclear after the Fukushima accident in
2011. Public opinions against nuclear energy ran as high as 80%
at one point.


A decade on and with new commitments to reducing emissions,
public opposition is turning, and the government wants to revive
nuclear power to improve Japan’s energy security in the context
of the country’s high dependency on fuel imports and ongoing
energy shocks around the world. Japan has started to invest in
nuclear power technologies again, with some private money going
into Small Modular Reactors (SMR) in the U.S. and state funding
trickling into Japan’s own High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor
(HTGR) program. 
Although local municipalities have the final say
on restarting nuclear power plants, Humber says that the
pro-nuclear message has been re-gaining popularity with many
arguing that Japan cannot meet its “green growth” strategy
without it.



We discuss how Japan went from being the victim of nuclear
weapons to a major player in nuclear energy, tying that in with a
broader history of energy of Japan, characterized by a series of
rapid energy transitions. The transition from coal to nuclear
could serve as an example to other countries, though it was a
process that faced many challenges of its own and relied on
making some promises the government ultimately couldn’t keep. As
someone who lived near both the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents
at the time when they occured, Humber has a first hand
perspective on the cultural and political changes around nuclear
in 2011.  We discuss these aspects as well as technical
problems facing Japanese energy supply following the closure of
its many nuclear plants.


Finally, we discuss the alternatives for Japanese
decarbonization. The challenge of providing constant power to a
megapolis such as the Tokyo metro area is immense. Already Japan
has the most solar panels per square meter of any country on
Earth. And it has ambitious plans for off-shore wind and
eventually a hydrogen economy. Carbon capture has been discussed,
yet only one geological carbon storage test facility exists in
all of Japan. The obstacles to more ambitious renewables plans
too are becoming clear, not only from land use, materials
intensity, and issues of intermittency, but NIMBYism. About 1/10
of all municipalities in Japan have ordinances to limit wind and
solar deployment or ban it completely. Offshore wind forecasts of
10 GW by 2030 and 45 GW by 2040-2045 have slowed to perhaps 2-3
GW by 2030. Even if Japan is able to rely on nuclear for 20-22%
of its electricity needs, decarbonization will be a long and
bumpy road, with a likely dependence on LNG and other fossil fuel
imports for long into the future.


Yuriy Humber is the founder of the Japan NRG platform, which
provides regular information and analysis about the Japanese
energy and power industry, markets, and policy. He is also a
columnist on energy issues for the “Nikkei Asia” and co-author of
an economic research report on Japan by the American Chamber of
Commerce in Japan.