Brexit Focus Podcast - Episode 18

Much has happened in the last month.


 


Theresa May has said she will step down as Prime Minister on 7
June.  Her replacement as leader of the Conservative Party
will be selected by just over 100,000 members of the party, after
a short list of two has been agreed by Conservative MPs. 
Assuming this time – unlike last time – the decision does go to
the membership, a new leader of the Conservative Party will not
be in place until mid July.


 


The new leader of the Conservative Party will then be asked by
the Queen to form a government – unless, and this is vaguely
possible, a significant number of Conservative MPs refuse to
support a government led by the new leader.  This would
create crisis and chaos - and is unlikely.


 


Moreover, the DUP’s confidence and supply arrangement with the
Government is in difficulty.  It is in supposed to be in
place until the end of this Parliament – when the next election
is held.  But the DUP has in effect breached the agreement
by voting against Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement.


So the Conservative Party may not have a majority under the new
leader unless and until another confidence and supply arrangement
is in place, or the existing one reaffirmed.


 


The European elections have changed the context for the
leadership election.  The Brexit Party gained around a third
of votes in Britain, destroying the Conservative Party’s
electoral support.  This in itself pushes the Conservative
Party towards a stronger pro-Brexit position.  Moreover, a
recent opinion survey found that the majority of Conservative
Party members favour leaving the EU without a deal, with 76%
favouring no deal over no Brexit.  Leadership contenders
will be playing to that audience.


 


The favourite to win is Boris Johnson, whose previous comments
indicate a lack of concern over the Irish border.  He seems
to believe it is not a real issue.  However, he might become
a more serious politician if he became prime minister.  And
he did, at the end, vote for Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal
agreement.


 


Second favourite is Dominic Raab, who favours a no deal Brexit –
probably on the basis that a more favourable deal could be
negotiated after the UK leaves the EU.  Esther McVey is
another front runner, with a similar view.  


 


Of the others, Michael Gove is more pragmatic over Brexit – but
has taken a hard line on the Northern Ireland peace process,
arguing that the Good Friday Agreement was a mistake. 
Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt is one of the few contenders to say
that a no deal Brexit outcome would be very damaging for the UK.


 


The European elections had other impacts.  The Labour Party
did badly, reducing the chances of it forming the next UK
government.  In Northern Ireland, the Ulster Unionist Party
did badly, losing its MEP seat.  While Sinn Fein topped the
poll, it lost almost as large a percentage of its votes as the
Ulster Unionists did, while performing even worse in the
Republic.  Sinn Fein will now be reflecting on its
performance and considering what it can do to strengthen its
position.


 


In continental Europe, the largest political groups – the centre
right and centre left groups – both lost support.  Ultra
nationalists did well.  The liberals also did well,
enlarging their group.  This has strengthened the position
of Emmanuel Macron, even though his party came second in France
behind the far right.  The result of this is that the next
President of the European Commission is now more likely to be
Michel Barnier.  And that means it is even less likely that
the EU would agree to reopen its negotiations with the UK, or in
any way change its position.


 


Pulling these strands together, the likelihood now is that there
is probably a more than 50% chance that the UK will leave the EU
without a deal at the end of October.  That in turn makes it
likely that there will be some type of controlled border in
Ireland, either a land border or in the Irish Sea.  Or some
combination of the two.  That is the probability that should
be planned for.


 


This is not inevitable, but it is difficult to see how any other
outcome can be achieved, given the political dynamics played out
in the European elections, plus the repeated stalemate in the
House of Commons.  It is correct to say that there is no
majority in the House of Commons for a no deal exit, but nor is
there as yet a majority for anything else either.  And in
the absence of an alternative agreed position, the default
setting is that the UK leaves the EU at the end of October. 
And that is now what other EU countries are planning for.


 


The best hope for Ireland and Northern Ireland is perhaps that
Boris Johnson becomes prime minister – and promptly changes his
position to one of pragmatism and gets the withdrawal agreement
negotiated by Theresa May through the House of Commons. 
Just how he could do that, is difficult to plot at the moment.