On the Verge – Climate Security with Rachel Fleishman (009)

By Evan Barnard 2021 is a critical year for multilateral climate
security dialogue, with climate change as a prominent topic at
high-level fora including the Munich Security Conference and the
United Nations Security Council. Security leaders from the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will participate in
the upcoming IISS Shangri-La Dialogue and the ASEAN Defense
Ministers Meeting in June. The Shangri-La Dialogue will include a
session on the defense implications of environmental and human
security. Today, we are sharing the first in a series of interviews
related to the recent Asia regional reports released by the
International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS).
This particular interview examines the report Climate Security and
the Strategic Energy Pathway in Southeast Asia. The report includes
an overview of resource availability, conflict, and economic
activity in Southeast Asia with expert advice for managing climate
security in the region. On the eve of the U.S.-hosted Leaders
Summit on Climate, I discussed climate security challenges and
potential remedies for Southeast Asia with Rachel Fleishman. Ms.
Fleishman is a senior fellow for Asia-Pacific at the Center for
Climate and Security and Asia-Pacific liaison at IMCCS. She began
her career in national security policy, working in nuclear arms
control. At the Pentagon, Ms. Fleishman worked for the Deputy Under
Secretary of Defense for Environmental Security, where she helped
conceive and build the Pentagon’s international environmental
security program in the 1990s when military and security issues
began diversifying from nuclear proliferation. She currently
advises businesses and non-profits on climate change and circular
economy issues at Insight Sustainability. In our conversation, Ms.
Fleishman recommends that militaries prepare for climate change by
stress-testing and updating operational capabilities. She also
suggests setting up ASEAN-level climate security watch centers to
analyze and predict climate extremes and other environmental
security trends. Joint military readiness in the region with local
integration could help Southeast Asian countries prepare for
climate security challenges and more effectively conduct
humanitarian assistance and disaster response missions. As the
effects of climate change become more pronounced in the region,
these missions will comprise an increasing proportion of military
operations. In Southeast Asia, China casts a long shadow over
resource scarcity. In the South China Sea, China has adopted a
philosophy claiming up to 90 percent of the Sea, with maritime
territorial claims extending to subsea resources including oil and
gas reserves and fisheries. As a result of China’s fierce defense
of its claimed natural resources, Southeast Asian countries like
Vietnam are meeting the Chinese in instances of armed
confrontation. China also controls the headwaters of the Mekong
River, which provides much of the freshwater for the Southeast Asia
region. When China builds dams on the Mekong, it limits the flow of
water to the region. ASEAN could prioritize prevention of economic
tensions and develop conflict management mechanisms, including for
marine-based conflicts. Ms. Fleishman proposes that security
threats will be augmented if significant carbon emission reduction
efforts are not made in the near-term. In a region that trades and
runs on predominantly fossil fuel energy resources, emissions
reduction will be a tall task. Nuclear energy is a
geopolitically-charged potential option, as any Southeast Asian
country interested in nuclear energy will need to secure a
multi-decadal relationship with a current nuclear power leader,
cementing foreign influence. However, with sea level rise,
subsidence, and more frequent and extreme severe weather, future
climatic conditions might inhibit nuclear power plants in some
coastal locations. She recommends that leaders consider their
constituencies,