On the Verge – Climate Security with Kate Guy (013)

By Evan Barnard In this second episode exploring the 2021 World
Climate and Security Report, Evan Barnard, a research fellow at the
Center for Climate and Security, discusses the current state and
prescience of climate security risks with Kate Guy. Ms. Guy is a
Senior Research Fellow with the Center for Climate and Security
(CCS), an Institute of the Council on Strategic Risks, where she
also serves as Deputy Director of the International Military
Council on Climate and Security. She was the lead author of the
seminal 2020 CCS report, A Security Threat Assessment of Global
Climate Change, and has contributed to numerous other climate
security research projects, including the 2021 World Climate and
Security Report. She is currently pursuing a doctorate on climate
change and global security at the University of Oxford. This
podcast episode takes a deep dive into the expert survey section of
the 2021 World Climate and Security Report published this summer by
the International Military Council on Climate and Security. This
survey, now in its second year, represents an important barometer
for determining climate security priorities, because the research
field of climate security is still relatively young and the expert
practitioner perspective uniquely highlights what practitioners
consider the most pressing and prescient issues. According to the
survey, experts in the climate-security intersection deem all
climate security threats to have at least a moderate level of risk
to society, and even one decade out, many of the same threats could
be at a high or potentially catastrophic level of risk. Risks
assessed are expected to grow if not accelerate in severity over
the next ten to twenty years. Ms. Guy found that experts believe
the biggest climate security risks do not just threaten military
operations but also society at large. Water security risks were the
most interconnected risks, with cascading effects on other aspects
of human and national security. Based on the survey results, Ms.
Guy suggests taking serious mitigation as well as adaptation
efforts now. “We’re not just safe if we build toward the resilience
of today,” says Ms. Guy. “We need to be building, and
understanding, and putting ourselves in the shoes of humans 20
years down the road and the risks they’ll be facing.” The decisions
of human societies made up to the present will most likely mean the
next twenty years will be grim for climate security risks. “We need
to be incorporating that understanding if we’re going to save lives
and ensure security.” For further reading and the survey
methodology, please check out Ms. Guy’s blog post and the 2021
World Climate and Security Report.