On the Verge – Climate Security with Sarang Shidore (015)

By Evan Barnard In this episode, which explores climate security
and the energy transition in Asia, Evan Barnard, a research fellow
at the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), discusses the current
state and prescience of climate security risks with Sarang Shidore.
Mr. Shidore is the Director of Studies at the Quincy Institute and
a Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Strategic Risks (CSR),
where he has co-authored multiple CCS reports on South Asia. He is
also a Senior Research Analyst at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of
Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. As a South
Asia international security expert, Mr. Shidore focuses on
geopolitical risk and its intersection with the global energy
transition and climate change. This episode examines two recent CCS
reports. The first report, Climate Security and the Strategic
Energy Pathway in South Asia, includes an overview of regional
natural resources, rivalries, and insecurities in Southeast Asia
with expert guidance for evaluating climate change and the energy
transition in the region. The second report, Melting Mountains,
Mountain Tensions, explores the hydrogeopolitics of glacial water
access and use among India, China, and Pakistan with an added level
of security complexity. Written as part of a joint collaboration
with the CSR Converging Risks Lab (CRL) and the Woodwell Climate
Research Center, the report is accompanied by an interactive story
map. According to Mr. Shidore, the lack of water cooperation in the
region is geopolitically and geostrategically consequential. In a
region that floods when the riverbanks overflow, more upstream dams
are likely to result in more flooding. Also, no river treaty like
the Indus Waters Treaty exists for the Brahmaputra River. Mr.
Shidore encourages the upstream and downstream parties to conduct
“data diplomacy,” sharing adequate data on adequate timescales to
rebuild trust between the countries and reduce conflict risk.
Sustained cooperation and dialogue may also open the possibility
for joint humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR)
operations in the region. Mr. Shidore suggests that we need greater
forecasting, investment, and dialogue. Discrepancies in changes in
micro-climates in South Asia can be large and challenging to
forecast, but decreasing uncertainty in monsoon predictions could
change South Asian agricultural livelihoods and potentially save
lives. Making communities more resilient to climate change effects
improves communities and the populations that live there, thus
bolstering climate resilience in the region. Investment in early
warning systems would also supplement the region’s climate
resilience to minimize the effects of sudden events like flooding.
In the inevitable cases of friction over the use of the Brahmaputra
and Indus Rivers, avenues for dialogue to build trust and
confidence can help resolve these conflicts.For further reading,
please check out the CCS Climate Security and the Strategic Energy
Pathway in South Asia report, the CRL Melting Mountains, Mountain
Tensions report, and the CRL Melting Mountains, Mountain Tensions
story map.