Knowing Rogues - Part 1

It doesn't take a perfect storm to generate a rogue wave-an
open-ocean wave much steeper and more massive than its neighbors
that appears with little or no warning. Sometimes winds and
currents collide causing waves to combine nonlinearly and produce
these towering walls of water. Mathematicians and other researchers
are collecting data from rogue waves and modeling them with partial
differential equations to understand how and why they form. A
deeper understanding of both their origins and their frequency will
result in safer shipping and offshore platform operations. Since
rogue waves are rare and short lived (fortunately), studying them
is not easy. So some researchers are experimenting with light to
create rogue waves in a different medium. Results of these
experiments are consistent with sailors' claims that rogues, like
other unusual events, are more frequent than what is predicted by
standard models. The standard models had assumed a bell-shaped
distribution for wave heights, and anticipated a rogue wave about
once every 10,000 years. This purported extreme unlikelihood led
designers and builders to not account for their potential
catastrophic effects. Today's recognition of rogues as rare, but
realistic, possibilities could save the shipping industry billions
of dollars and hundreds of lives. For More Information: "Dashing
Rogues", Sid Perkins, Science News, November 18, 2006.