Forecasting Crime Part 1

No one can predict who will commit a crime but in some cities math
is helping detect areas where crimes have the greatest chance of
occurring. Police then increase patrols in these "hot spots" in
order to prevent crime. This innovative practice, called predictive
policing, is based on large amounts of data collected from previous
crimes, but it involves more than just maps and push pins.
Predictive policing identifies hot spots by using algorithms
similar to those used to predict aftershocks after major
earthquakes. Just as aftershocks are more likely near a recent
earthquake.s epicenter, so too are crimes, as criminals do indeed
return to, or very close to, the scene of a crime. Cities employing
this approach have seen crime rates drop and studies are underway
to measure predictive policing.s part in that drop. One fact that
has been determined concerns the nature of hot spots. Researchers
using partial differential equations and bifurcation theory have
discovered two types of hot spots, which respond quite differently
to increased patrols. One type will shift to another area of the
city while the other will disappear entirely. Unfortunately the two
appear the same on the surface, so mathematicians and others are
working to help police find ways to differentiate between the two
so as to best allocate their resources.