Wen Bitcoin Bull Market? With Rational Root - WBD672

The Rational Root is a Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analyst. In
this interview, 9 months on from our last interview, we look into
the various Bitcoin price models Root has developed. We again
review his Bitcoin Spiral Models, Bitcoin Hodl price models and
Bitcoin halving & cycle charts. We discuss the growing
evidence of Bitcoin scarcity, and bullish cases as we approach
the next halving.


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In his first interview on What Bitcoin Did last August, the
Rational Root made prescient predictions about Bitcoin bear
market lows that occurred a few months later. The caveat is that
he also stated “You always have to be a bit sceptical about
models that predict the future, they can be wrong.” Nevertheless,
the models Rational Root has developed have some conspicuous
patterns that are worth consideration.


The Bitcoin Spiral chart Rational Root uses is incredibly
powerful. It clearly shows a correlation between Bitcoin's price
and the halving events. Extrapolating this pattern forward
suggests we could be on the cusp of a new bullish price triggered
by next year's halving. This phase is predicted to see a material
price appreciation between $100,000 and $1 million in the next
cycle.


We also debate whether Bitcoin is now correlated with other more
significant asset markets, in particular the S&P 500. In
essence, is there a correlation between Bitcoin’s price and risk
appetite in the investment market? If such a link has been
established, and a rescission occurs, this could lead to a
deviation from the Bitcoin halving cycle patterns.


But perhaps the most bullish analysis Rational Root has
undertaken involves the assessment of demand and supply
indicators, such as his "Hodl Model", which predicts the growth
rate of illiquid supply in Bitcoin. It’s simple economics that
price is affected by the relationship between demand and supply,
and, as Rational Root states “Bitcoin is becoming more scarce,
and this data is not being paid attention to by many people."