WTH is Iran Attacking Israel? Fred Kagan Explains

Last weekend, for the first time since the founding of the
Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran launched a direct attack on Israel
from Iranian territory. In total, some 170 drones, 120
surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, and more than 30 cruise
missiles targeted Israel, with most coming from Iran, and some
from Iranian proxies in Iraq and Yemen. In response to what was a
well-advertised attack, Israel, the United States, Great Britain,
France, and Jordan (among other Arab countries) deployed from
land, sea, and air with jets, missile defense, and a guided
missile cruiser among a sophisticated array of defensive assets.
As a result, a reported seven missiles landed mostly harmlessly
in Israel, with injuries restricted to shrapnel injuring a young
Bedouin girl. Israeli and American leaders were quick to
celebrate Iran’s failed attack and the “restoration of
deterrence.” But are the Israelis correct in celebrating Iran’s
inability to cause real damage? Or are they ignoring the very
real risk that seven Iranian missiles actually hit the State of
Israel? What will Iran learn from this exercise? And how did
their attack reflect the lessons Russia is learning on Iranian
equipment in Ukraine?


Frederick W. Kagan is the director of AEI’s Critical Threats
Project and a former professor of military history at the US
Military Academy at West Point. He is the author of the 2007
report Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq, which is one
of the intellectual architects of the successful “surge” strategy
in Iraq, and the book Lessons for a Long War (AEI
Press, 2010). His Critical Threats Project, alongside the
Institute for the Study of War, releases regular updates on
Iranian activity in the Middle East, Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine, and transnational terrorism on the African continent.


Download the transcript here.


Find the Critical Threats Project's Iran Updates here.