Foreclosing the Dream (Media Briefing)

New Book Sounds Death Knell for Suburbs
Media Briefing Presentation


CHICAGO — The suburbs are in a fragile state and it is only going
to get worse. The recent foreclosure crisis has masked the true,
underlying problems facing U.S. suburbs. These are basic
structural problems that will not vanish with a global economic
recovery.


Foreclosing the Dream: How America's Housing Crisis Is Reshaping
Our Cities and Suburbs, published by the American Planning
Association (APA), is the first book to look beyond financial
manipulations to understand what truly fueled the foreclosure
crisis and what it means for the future of suburbs and cities.


According to the book:


Higher rates of foreclosures in new suburbs and exurbs compared
to lower rates in cities show that the American Dream is
changing.
The number of households in the 30 to 45 age group has declined
by 3.4 million since 2000 and this has reduced demand for large
suburban houses.
The stereotypical "white flight exodus" from central cities has
been reversed in most large metropolitan areas.
Changing demographics and consumer attitudes coupled with
political support for compact development, transit investments,
and awareness about climate change all point to a dramatic shift
in development patterns.


Author William H. Lucy, AICP, is an urban planning professor at
the University of Virginia. He is the first to examine the full
impact of foreclosures in conjunction with other factors such as
the influence of politics, household demographic changes,
household income, and national housing policies to generate a
comprehensive view of what is happening in our communities.


In examining the foreclosure rates in 236 counties in the 35
largest metropolitan areas, combined with housing and income
characteristics in each of the 50 states, Lucy provides a more
complete understanding of the housing and financial crisis that
began in 2008. Lucy's research shows that central city
improvements throughout the past decade illustrate a pattern of
growing revival.


"These shifts will lead to shorter commutes to work and less
carbon dioxide emissions," Lucy said. "But these same shifts will
lead to more poverty in suburbs and more financially stressed
suburban governments."


The ongoing deterioration of the suburbs was actually masked by
the housing price run-up that occurred between 2002 and 2006. And
the foreclosure crisis has only served to accelerate the suburban
deterioration.


"Two key questions will be answered during the next decade," Lucy
said. "Is 2010 the threshold for rapid city revival in coming
decades just as 1950 was the threshold for rapid suburban
development during the next half century? And will developers,
lenders, and government officials facilitate these positive
changes in housing markets while also adapting to support
declining suburbs?"


"Foreclosing the Dream is a warning for communities and elected
officials. Lucy identifies a fundamental change in our
communities that will only continue to gain momentum. His
research illustrates that the foreclosure crisis has greater
implications beyond just revising our current lending practices,"
said W. Paul Farmer, FAICP, APA's Chief Executive Officer.


The book includes specific data for the following 35 metropolitan
areas: Atlanta; Baltimore; Boston; Buffalo; Charlotte; Chicago;
Cincinnati; Cleveland; Columbus; Dallas; Denver; Detroit;
Houston; Indianapolis; Kansas City; Las Vegas; Los Angeles;
Miami; Milwaukee; Minneapolis/St. Paul; New York; Orlando;
Philadelphia; Phoenix; Pittsburgh; Portland, OR; Sacramento; San
Antonio; San Diego; San Francisco; Seattle; St. Louis; Tampa/St.
Petersburg; Virginia Beach; Washington, D.C.


Foreclosing the Dream is available through APAPlanningBooks.com
for $52.95 ($34.95 for APA members). ISBN: 978-1-932364-78-1.
Paperback: 208 pp.


Lucy is the Lawrence Lewis Jr. Professor of Urban and
Environmental Planning at the University of Virginia. Foreclosing
the Dream is the first book to examine the broader context of the
foreclosure crisis in terms of causes and effects, including
influences of household demographic changes, household income,
national housing policies, and national politics on the changing
prospects of cities and suburbs throughout the United States.
Lucy also is the author, with David Phillips, of Tomorrow's
Cities Tomorrow's Suburbs, which was published by the American
Planning Association in 2006.