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The Coming Storm: Lessons from History for today's Great Power Conflicts with Arne Westad (Yale)

The Coming Storm: Lessons from History for today's Great Power Conflicts with Arne Westad (Yale)

European Fault Lines vor 3 Wochen

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48:07

Are we looking at a new Cold War—or a world that more closely
resembles the years before 1914?

Arne Westad, historian at Yale University and one of the world’s
leading Cold War scholars, sees striking parallels with the era
before the First World War: the unravelling of decades of
globalisation, shifting power balances, and a rapid slide from
apparent stability into crisis.

In conversation with Ingmar Zielke and Maximilian Knoll, he
explores the responsibilities of established powers towards
rising ones, the precarious partnership between Russia and China,
and the limits of nuclear deterrence. He also explains why, in
his view, the next two years could be decisive in preventing a
slide towards great-power war.

At the heart of the discussion is his latest book, The Coming
Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from History.

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Recorded in September 2026. References to current events and
future timeframes reflect the date of recording.

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Further reading

• About Arne Westad — Yale Jackson School of Global
Affairs:

https://jackson.yale.edu/directory/odd-arne-westad

• The Coming Storm — review by Jadwiga Biskupska, US Army War
College Press (free access):

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters_bookshelf/188/

• “Are America and China Condemned to Repeat History?” — review
by Elizabeth D. Samet, Foreign Affairs (subscription
required):

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/are-america-and-china-condemned-repeat-history-samet

• For a deeper historical perspective: Westad’s The Global Cold
War: Third World Interventions and the Making of Our Times.

Chapters:

(00:00) The first storm fronts

(00:28) Guest: Odd Arne Westad

(00:59) Why this is not the Cold War

(03:29) Echoes of the early 20th century

(05:46) Hegemon or challenger?

(08:08) America's role in China's rise

(11:13) Fear in the established power

(12:55) The case for peace: compromise

(16:20) Strengthening the UN

(17:37) How close is the storm?

(19:08) Taiwan and the German analogy

(20:31) Do nuclear weapons still deter?

(23:35) Is the defence now stronger?

(25:14) Russia as China's junior partner

(28:20) China, Russia and Austria-Hungary

(31:47) Individuals or structures?

(35:10) Technology and mobilisation

(36:18) Europe's structural weaknesses

(40:39) A security order with Russia?

(45:09) Overstretch and productive power