Volkswirtschaft - Open Access LMU - Teil 01/03 Archiv
250 Episoden
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If the established rules are obeyed spontaneously in an economy, this increases economic efficiency since the uncertainties, monitoring costs and incentive problems induced by opportunism can be avoided. Opportunism will be increasedby increasing the incentives for unlawful behaviour, however, and a slight increase in these incentives might cause a cumulative and self-nourishing breakdown of morals. The dangers of the growing shadow economy are louring here.
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In explaining economic phenomena, economic analysis concentrates on selected influences and fixes the host of other factors under a ceteris paribus clause. This view, which goes back to Alfred Marshall (1842-1924), is developed in the first part of the book. Aggregation is viewed as a particular application of ceteris paribus analysis - isolation from "structural effects". This leads to an approach, called "closed aggregation", which was introduced by Kenneth May and is also implicit in Keynes' writings but has been neglected more recently. It is argued that macroeconomic models are more stable and more general than the corresponding micro models and that there is no simple analogy between them.
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The aim of this paper is to develop a model-based seasonal adjustment method which will yield the same decomposition formulas as the descriptive seasonal adjustment procedures proposed in Schlicht/Pauly (1984) and Schlicht (1981). Hence the duality between the descriptive and the model-based approaches to seasonal adjustment referred to in Schlicht (1981) is resolved for this class of statistical models and descriptive procedures. In addition, estimates for the weights used in the descriptive procedures can be obtained in the stochastic framework, in principle
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The paper discusses a new seasonality hypothesis which is one part of a weighted regression approach for the decomposition of a time series into a trend, a seasonal component and an irregular component. It is shown that there exists a regression formulation leading, as in the descriptive approach in Schlicht (1981), to a unique decomposition withouit having recourse to initial values. It turns out that both solutions to the descriptive regression are conditional expected values in the stochastic specification. The decomposition as well as predciction are illustrated by examples
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Aus neoklassischer Sicht bestimmen sich Löhne und Zinsen (und damit die funktionelle Einkommensverteilung) so, daß eine richtige Wahl der Pruktionsverfahren induziert wird. In neokeynesianischer Sicht bilden sich Löhne und Zinsen (und damit die funktionelle Einkommensverteilung) so, daß der Gütermarkt geräumt wird. Die beiden Theorierichtungen unterscheiden sich mithin dadurch, daß sie die Einkommensverteilung als Lösung von zwei verschiedenen Koordinationsproblemen sehen und damit zu verschiedenen Ergebnissen kommen. In diesem Beitrag wird kritisiert, daß sich diese beiden Theorierichtungen jeweils auf nur eins der beiden Koordinationsproblem konzentrieren und das jeweils andere vernachlässigen. Es wird die These vertreten, daß beide Koordinationsprobleme wichtig sind aber nicht gleichzeitig gelöst werden können. Dies wirft wichtige Fragestellungen für die Konjunkturtheorie auf.
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This paper considers the problem of the optimal time path of contraction of an industry which has been hit by foreign competition, and shows that in general, along the optimal path, a production subsidy is warranted. The optimal subsidy trades off the benefit of unemployment in speeding up the approach to the new long-run equilibrium against the cost of lost output in the ‘inefficient’ industry. The dynamic shadow price of labour in this industry is also derived and shown to be always positive, though below the industry wage rate
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The seasonal adjustment method proposed by Schlicht (1981) can be viewed as a method that minimizes non-stochastic deviations (perturbations). This interpretation gives rise to a critique of the seasonality criterion used there. A new seasonality criterion is proposed that avoids these shortcomings, and the resulting seasonal adjustment method is given
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