Dan Niles doesn’t think AI wiping out humanity is a likely
outcome—but he does think the technology could wipe out plenty of
stocks. The Founder & Portfolio Manager of Niles Investment
Management joins Amber Kanwar at a moment of peak AI anxiety to
separate the existential fears from the very real investment
risks. Niles believes AI is the biggest technological revolution
since the internet and that agentic AI is still in its early
stages, but he also sees warning signs in slowing AI spending
growth, data-centre push-outs and increasingly aggressive
assumptions about how long the boom can last.
He also weighs in on the battle among the biggest names in AI,
including Google, Meta and the frontier model companies, and
explains why the next phase of the revolution could produce a
very different group of winners and losers. Niles makes the case
for Meta as an AI comeback story, explains why Nvidia may be in a
different category from some of the more speculative AI
infrastructure plays, and warns that investors shouldn’t assume
every stock will simply bounce back if the market turns.
In the mailbag, Niles tackles Snowflake (SNOW), Marvell
Technology (MRVL), Celestica (CLS), Nebius Group (NBIS), Nvidia
(NVDA), Amazon (AMZN) and SpaceX. He explains why he isn’t
convinced Snowflake will escape AI disruption, why he prefers
Marvell to Celestica, why the neo-clouds could be among the first
casualties if AI spending slows, and how Amazon’s strength in
robotics could reshape its long-term investment case. He also
explains why, despite being a huge believer in Elon Musk and the
future of space, valuation and cash flow make SpaceX difficult
for him to own.
In Pro Picks, one idea makes a return appearance:
cash. Niles picked cash alongside Cisco Systems
(CSCO), Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) when he last appeared
in May 2025, and this time he puts cash at the very top of his
list as growing market risks make patience more valuable. He also
likes Meta Platforms (META), where a lower valuation, improving
AI models and new ways to monetize its AI spending have made the
risk-reward more attractive. And he’s bullish on Apple (AAPL),
where he believes product-focused leadership and the arrival of a
foldable iPhone could finally spark a major new upgrade cycle
next year. Niles also revisits Cisco, Microsoft and Nvidia from
his past picks, including why Cisco’s position at the centre of
networking infrastructure could continue to benefit as companies
build out their own AI systems.
Timestamps
00:00 Trailer
2:15 Intro
03:37 Dan Niles on AI Risk
08:35 What Slower AI Spending Means for Semiconductors
10:49 Is the AI Boom Turning Into a Bubble?
13:58 Open-Source AI vs. Frontier Models
16:27 The AI Shakeout: Who Will Survive?
19:34 Why Dan Is Bearish on the Market
21:01 Bonds, Debt, and the Risk of a Major Sell-Off
28:14 Why Credit Markets Matter for Big Tech
30:51 Dan Niles’ Changing View on Google
35:55 ITM Mailbag: Snowflake stock (SNOW) and the Software Sector
40:46 Marvell & Celestica (MRVL, CLS)
45:50 Nebius & NVIDIA (NBIS, NVIDA)
51:58 Is Amazon Still a Long-Term AI Play? (AMZN)
54:23 Should You Buy the Dip in SpaceX? (SPCX)
57:43 Past & Pro Picks: CASH, CSCO, NVDA,MSFT, META,
AAPL
68:17 Closing Bell: Chess and Chinese Dramas
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DISCLAIMERS
The information provided in this podcast is for informational
purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or
professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests
are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any
organization or company. The host and guests may maintain
positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always
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making any investment decisions.
In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and
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Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio
managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering
everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing
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