Cole Smead got Canadian energy right when few investors wanted
anything to do with the sector. Now, after some of his biggest
stock picks have delivered enormous returns, is there still money
to be made?
Cole was one of the top-performing stock pickers in our mid-year
review, claiming both the number one and number three spots
thanks in large part to his winning Canadian energy bets. Now, he
returns to explain why he believes the Canadian oil trade is far
from over, even after a massive rally. While some of the biggest
bargains in Canadian energy have disappeared, Smead believes the
sector still has significant upside. But investors looking for
the next big payoff may need patience rather than chasing quick
gains.
He breaks down why Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) remains one of his
highest-conviction holdings, what its acquisition of Athabasca
Oil (ATH.TO) reveals about the value of Canadian oil sands
assets, and why he thinks consolidation could eventually leave
Canada with just three major oil producers. He also weighs in on
the widening discount for Canadian crude, the outlook for oil
prices amid geopolitical tensions, and why he's avoiding the AI
spending boom in favour of businesses generating enormous free
cash flow. Plus, why this outspoken American investor is
expanding his business into Canada.
In the Mailbag, Cole answers viewer questions about whether
Athabasca Oil (ATH.TO) could attract a competing bid, whether
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO) is falling behind its peers,
and whether there's more upside in Whitecap Resources (WCP.TO)
following its Veren acquisition. He also shares his outlook for
Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO), Baytex Energy (BTE.TO),
Strathcona Resources (SCR.TO), and Birchcliff Energy (BIR.TO),
explaining where he sees opportunities, where he's cautious, and
why capital allocation matters more than ever.
In Pro Picks, Cole revisits his previous recommendations,
including Strathcona Resources (SCR.TO), Pandora (PNDORA.CO) and
West Fraser Timber (WFG) before revealing three investment ideas:
International Petroleum (IPCO.TO), a Canadian energy company with
ambitious oil sands growth plans; Barclays (BARC.L), a European
bank he believes could benefit from improving profitability and
industry consolidation; and Auto Trader Group (AUTO.L), a
beaten-down British business where he sees a potential
opportunity for patient investors.
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Timestamps
0:00 Trailer
2:03 Intro
3:22 Cole Smead on expanding into Canada
5:38 Speaking candidly about Canadian investing
7:58 The H&R REIT deal and shareholder value
11:37 Cole’s investment approach and portfolio
13:10 Why he avoids big tech and capex cycles
15:44 Canadian oil prices and pipeline constraints
18:37 ITM Mailbag: Athabasca takeover offer, is another bid
coming? (ATH)
25:27 Greenfire, Strathcona, and oil consolidation
28:03 Canadian Natural Resources and capital allocation (CNQ)
30:22 Whitecap, gas assets, and oil investments (WCP)
38:33 Tamarack Valley: patience and returns (TVE)
39:55 Baytex Energy (BTE)
43:17 Enbridge, and pipelines
46:18 Birchcliff and the gas business
48:00 Cole’s past picks: Strathcona, Pandora, West Fraser (SCR,
PNDORA, WFG)
1:00:17 Cole’s Pro Picks: International Petroleum, Barclays, Auto
Trader (IPCO, BARC, AUTO)
1:17:58 Closing Bell: Cole’s hobbies and closing conversation
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DISCLAIMERS
The information provided in this podcast is for informational
purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or
professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests
are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any
organization or company. The host and guests may maintain
positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always
consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before
making any investment decisions.
In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and
timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber
Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio
managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering
everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing
trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is
made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone
looking to sharpen their financial strategy.
Contact: questions@inthemoneypod.com
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