Rising interest rates have punished real estate stocks and left
investors wondering: Is real estate dead
money?
Jeff Olin, President & CEO and Portfolio Manager at Vision
Capital Corporation, says absolutely not. While higher rates
matter, he argues that supply and demand ultimately matter
more—and that today’s disconnect between public and private real
estate markets is creating opportunities. With billions of
dollars of private capital still looking for deals, Olin expects
the wave of M&A in real estate to continue.
Olin explains why Vision has increased its net long exposure,
where he sees the best supply-and-demand fundamentals and why
investors need to stop treating real estate as one homogeneous
sector. He breaks down the strength in grocery-anchored retail,
why he’s becoming more constructive on industrial real estate
again and where he sees opportunities in apartments, seniors
housing and data centres.
In the Mailbag, Olin tackles the controversial proposed
transaction involving H&R REIT (HR.UN) and GO Residential
REIT (GOR.UN), including why both stocks fell after the deal was
announced, the potential value he still sees in GO and the
questions surrounding H&R’s process and governance. He also
revisits Allied Properties REIT (AP.UN) after warning about the
company on his last appearance. Following a major distribution
cut and equity raise, Olin argues Allied still has a distribution
problem and says he would eliminate the dividend entirely—even as
he acknowledges the company owns some great real estate.
Plus, Olin weighs in on Dream Office REIT (D.UN), BSR REIT
(HOM.U), Mainstreet Equity (MEQ), Nexus Industrial REIT (NXR.UN)
and Plaza Retail REIT (PLZ.UN), including which names he thinks
offer genuine value—and which apparent bargains could still be
value traps.
Before revealing his new Pro Picks, Olin revisits last year’s
picks: Dream Industrial REIT (DIR.UN), First Capital REIT
(FCR.UN) and Chartwell Retirement Residences (CSH.UN). First
Capital was ultimately acquired after Olin had argued that its
grocery-anchored portfolio was significantly undervalued, while
Dream Industrial and Chartwell remain names he likes.
For this year’s Pro Picks, Olin returns to Chartwell Retirement
Residences (CSH.UN), pointing to powerful demographic tailwinds,
limited new supply and rising occupancy. He also picks Brookdale
Senior Living (BKD), the largest operator of retirement
communities in the U.S., where he sees an occupancy and
management turnaround story, and Csquare (CSQR), a newly public
data-centre company he calls a “screaming value” with exposure to
the less-hyped co-location side of the data-centre boom.
Timestamps
00:00 Trailer
02:15 Intro
03:20 Is Real Estate dead money?
05:23 U.S. REIT Balance Sheets and Debt
06:42 Canadian REITs: Valuations and Leverage
08:09 Why Vision Capital Is Net Long
09:32 Real Estate M&A and Takeover Premiums
11:01 How Higher Rates Affect Deal Flow
11:47 Cap Rates Explained
12:59 Why Retail Real Estate Is Not One-Size-Fits-All
13:27 The Case for Grocery-Anchored Retail
15:24 Slate Grocery REIT: What Went Wrong?
16:39 Why the Slate Deal Angered Investors
18:57 ITM Mailbag: H&R REIT and GO Residential: The Deal
Explained (GO.U, HR.UN)
27:32 Dream Office REIT and BSR REIT (D.UN, BSR)
33:21 Main Street Equity’s Long-Term Growth Story (MEQ)
37:41 Nexus Industrial REIT and Data Centre Claims (NXR)
39:19 Allied Properties: Governance and Capital Allocation
44:11 Should Allied Properties Eliminate Its Dividend? (AP.UN)
46:17 Plaza REIT and Potential M&A (PLZ.UN)
48:49 Jeff’s Past & Pro Picks ( DIR.UN, FCR.UN, CSH.UN, BKD,
CSQR)
62:59 Closing Bell: Jeff Olin on Skiing and Family
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In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and
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