We’re looking ahead to the crucial Fed decision next week
— and the central bank may be on a collision course with the
market, with inflation, and possibly with its own incoming
leadership.
Amber sits down with Dustin Reid, Chief Strategist, Fixed Income
at Mackenzie Investments for a wide-ranging and deeply insightful
breakdown of what’s about to hit the economy. Reid explains why
chaotic Fed communication set the stage for this moment, why the
December cut might be the last one for a long time, and what
happens if the next Fed chair cuts rates no matter what the data
says.
They dig into the true state of the U.S. economy, the K-shaped
consumer, whether inflation is really stuck near 3%, and how
tariff pass-through and aggressive fiscal stimulus could
complicate the path ahead.
Then the focus shifts to Canada, where Reid argues the Bank of
Canada is not done — predicting at least two more cuts by June
2026 as the country confronts a cooling housing market, stalled
population growth, and wildly conflicting job data. He breaks
down why labour market figures are sending opposite signals, how
Blue Jays mania distorted the numbers, and what the real picture
looks like under the surface.
Amber and Dustin dive into how AI megacap spending has become a
bigger driver of U.S. growth than the consumer, whether cracks in
the AI trade will first show up in credit, why Oracle’s CDS spike
may be more idiosyncratic than systemic, where private credit
stress could ripple next, and how USMCA brinkmanship could impact
Canadian markets in 2026.
In the Mailbag, Dustin gives his thoughts on the TLT, unpacks the
truth about de-dollarization, and explains whether
target-maturity bond funds really make sense for retail
investors.
And in Pro Picks, he lays out his highest-conviction positioning
for 2026: long the Canadian front end, short the U.S. front end,
and why the EM FX carry could be one of the most overlooked
opportunities for Canadian investors.
Timestamps
00:00 Questrade’s new tools for investors. Use promo code
INTHEMONEY
02:00 Show intro
04:25 Looking ahead to a very important Fed rate decision
06:50 Why Dustin thinks the Fed will stop cutting in the new
year
10:20 What about Trump’s new Fed pick and the risk of a policy
mistake
14:40 The fixed income market could become an issue
17:40 U.S. fiscal policy
21:10 The bond vigilantes
22:45 AI spending and the bond market
28:00 High-yield debt and should we expect more issuances in
2026
30:00 Private credit defaults
33:00 Why Dustin think the BOC is NOT done cutting rates
35:00 Canadian data & the baseball effect
41:00 What about inflation?
42:50 The trade risk for Canada
45:15 ITM Mailbag: Thoughts on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
ETF (TLT)
47:00 USD and the role of de-dollarization
52:50 Target bond funds
54:20 Dustin’s Pro Picks (Long Canadian front end, short U.S.
front end, EM FX carry trade)
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For over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians
achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca
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With tools like the ETF Compare Tool and Market Insights, you can
easily identify ETFs that hold your favourite stocks, match your
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DISCLAIMERS
The information provided in this podcast is for informational
purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or
professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests
are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any
organization or company. The host and guests may maintain
positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always
consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before
making any investment decisions.
In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and
timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber
Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio
managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering
everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing
trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is
made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone
looking to sharpen their financial strategy.
Contact: questions@inthemoneypod.com
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