What does the Venezuela fallout mean for Canada, oil markets —
and for investors trying to stay ahead of the noise? On this
episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, we tackle the
geopolitical shock head-on — and separate real risk from market
overreaction.
Amber begins with veteran investor Frances Horodelski, setting
the scene on Venezuela’s sudden return to the global spotlight.
Frances breaks down why the sharp selloff in Canadian energy
stocks may have been more about positioning than fundamentals.
She explains how Canadian oil had already outperformed U.S.
peers, why fears around Venezuelan oil supply may be overstated,
and why infrastructure constraints, corruption, and pricing
realities mean any meaningful production ramp will take years,
not weeks. She also weighs in on USMCA/NAFTA renegotiations,
Canada’s bargaining power with the U.S., the resilience of the
Canadian dollar, and why investors can’t just “buy the energy
ETF” anymore.
The conversation expands beyond oil to explore Bank of Canada
policy, gold and gold miners, commodities, Canadian banks, and
defensive sectors. Frances explains why banks, copper, and gold
may be ahead of themselves, why utilities and healthcare could
offer shelter, and why this environment increasingly looks like a
stock picker’s market.
In the second half, Cole Smead of Smead Capital tackles the
biggest question investors are asking: Does Venezuela change the
global energy game? Cole argues the market is confusing headlines
with fundamentals, explaining why time, capital, and physics
still dominate oil markets. He outlines why fears around Canadian
heavy oil may be misplaced, why WTI vs WCS spreads matter, and
how potential pipeline developments could reshape long-term
outcomes.
Cole also shares how he’s positioning portfolios amid volatility,
why he’s leaning into Canadian heavy oil producers, avoiding
short-term refinery hype, and “dreaming” where others can’t. He
discusses ConocoPhillips (COP), Chevron (CVX), Canadian names
like Cenovus, Canadian Natural Resources, Strathcona, Tourmaline,
and Birchcliff, and why investor psychology creates opportunity
when markets panic.
It’s a clear-eyed conversation about geopolitics, energy, and
investor psychology — and a reminder that the market’s first
reaction is rarely the final verdict.
Timestamps
00:00 Show intro
03:30 Looking at the Canadian energy patch pre and post Venezuela
invasion
06:00 The oil making its way to the Gulf Coast is not a lot of
oil
07:00 It will take a very long time to get the oil out of
Venezuela
08:30 Is Canada’s bargaining power screwed?
11:00 Is Venezuela a domestic issue because it will lower oil
prices?
12:30 What about Canadian banks in Latin America?
14:40 What does it mean for the gold price?
16:30 Where can investors hide?
18:00 What about other commodities?
20:20 The world changes when consequential people are in
power
23:00 Cole Smead ‘this too will pass’, why Cole still likes
Canadian energy
26:00 Pipeline pressure and supply and demand
30:45 What does it mean for U.S. energy?
34:30 What is the ideal tilt for a portfolio?
37:40 Cole is running toward Canadian heavy oil
40:00 Time to sell or find a way to profit?
44:20 Could this mean more M&A in the Canadian energy
patch?
49:00 Will this catalyze action around a pipeline?
53:15 What comes next around the world?
57:40 Is there a world where Canadian producers go to
Venezuela?
59:30 Cole’s high-conviction ideas
Sponsors
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DISCLAIMERS
The information provided in this podcast is for informational
purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or
professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests
are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any
organization or company. The host and guests may maintain
positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always
consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before
making any investment decisions.
In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and
timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber
Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio
managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering
everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing
trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is
made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone
looking to sharpen their financial strategy.
Contact: questions@inthemoneypod.com
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