What if the biggest risk to the S&P 500 isn’t a recession,
rates, or geopolitics — but the way we invest?
Amber Kanwar sits down with Michael Green, Portfolio Manager
& Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management , to unpack a
provocative — and deeply unsettling — idea: under certain
conditions, the S&P 500 could theoretically go to zero. Not
because every company fails, but because market structure breaks.
Green explains how the explosive growth of passive investing has
quietly changed how markets behave, why flows now matter more
than fundamentals, and how index-driven buying can amplify
momentum on the way up — and instability on the way down. Drawing
on his famously prescient call on the collapse of the XIV
volatility ETF, Green walks through the math behind systemic
“zero events,” why they become self-catalyzing, and why
policymakers — not individual investors — ultimately own this
risk.
The conversation also dives into gold and commodities as
flow-driven markets, the role demographics play in shaping
inflation and asset prices, and why machines — not humans — may
be the dominant drivers of future demand. Green lays out why
electricity-hungry systems like data centers are reshaping
commodity demand, why traditional “human food” commodities face
long-term headwinds, and how structural shortages can quietly
drive inflation higher.
In Pro Picks, Green explains how these themes are expressed
through ETFs managed by Simplify Asset Management. He walks
through the Simplify High-Yield ETF (CDX) and how its structure
emphasizes endogenous cash flow, outlines how the Simplify
Managed Futures Strategy ETF (CTA) uses a systematic
trend-following approach to navigate volatile, flow-driven
markets, and discusses how the Simplify Commodities Strategy No
K-1 ETF (HARD) is designed to capture broad commodity trends,
including rising demand for machine-driven resources like
electricity. He also breaks down the role of gold as a
flow-dominated asset and explains how the Simplify Gold Strategy
Plus Income ETF (YGLD) is structured to generate income while
helping cushion downside through options.
This is not a call to panic — it’s a framework for understanding
the hidden mechanics shaping today’s markets, and the extreme
tail risks most investors never consider.
Timestamps
00:00 show trailer
02:20 Show intro
04:00 How Michael became the anti-passive investing guy
09:00 A systemic risk lurking inside index funds
13:20 The story of XIV, why it failed and why Michael got it
right
20:20 Is policy needed to fix the problem with passive?
22:20 The S&P 500 could theoretically go to zero
25:20 What do Michael’s well-known colleagues think about his
view
27:00 But isn’t discernment alive and well in the market?
29:35 Gold, flows and why Michael isn’t focused on specific
companies
33:20 Can investors get away from the systemic risk?
36:10 In 15 years half of the boomers will have passed
on
41:20 How Michael developed his approach to markets
47:20 Michael’s Pro Picks (CDX, HARD, CTA, YGLD)
Sponsors
For over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians
achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca
today to discover how you can live a life well planned.
Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial. Visit
https://ATB.com/inthemoney for more information
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DISCLAIMERS
The information provided in this podcast is for informational
purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or
professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests
are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any
organization or company. The host and guests may maintain
positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always
consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before
making any investment decisions.
In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and
timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber
Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio
managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering
everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing
trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is
made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone
looking to sharpen their financial strategy.
Contact: questions@inthemoneypod.com
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