The oil market has been rocked by escalating tensions in the
Middle East, massive price swings, and a growing debate over
whether the world is heading into a full-blown energy shock. In
this special two-part episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar,
we bring you perspectives from both sides of the market.
First, Josh Young, Portfolio Manager at Bison Investments, breaks
down the crisis from the buy side, explaining why he believes the
oil market was already tightening long before the latest
geopolitical escalation and why the risk of a major supply shock
is being underestimated. He walks through what could happen if
disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist — including his view
that if the strait were to remain closed for roughly 60 days, oil
prices could surge to new all-time highs. Josh also explains why
energy stocks may still have significant upside and how he’s
positioning his portfolio to capture asymmetric opportunities in
the sector. He also notes that higher global oil prices could be
particularly positive for Canadian oil producers, which stand to
benefit from stronger crude pricing and increased demand for
secure supply outside the Middle East. In Pro Picks, Josh
highlights Crescent Energy (CRGY), which he describes as a
“Moneyball”-style operator buying and improving undervalued
assets; Ensign Energy Services (ESI.TO), an oilfield services
company he believes is being overly punished for its Middle East
exposure despite strong free cash flow; and Journey Energy
(JOY.TO), a small-cap Canadian producer he says still has
meaningful upside driven by its Duvernay exposure and potential
takeover interest.
Then we shift to the sell side with Patrick O’Rourke, Managing
Director, Institutional Equity Research at ATB Cormark Capital
Markets, who explains how analysts and institutional investors
are interpreting the crisis — with a particular focus on what it
means for Canadian oil prices and producers. Patrick breaks down
why crude volatility has been concentrated at the front end of
the curve, why energy equities haven’t fully reacted yet, and how
investors are trying to determine whether higher oil prices will
last. He also explains how global supply disruptions are
tightening Canadian heavy oil differentials, improving realized
prices for Canadian crude, and increasing demand for barrels that
can reach the Gulf Coast or Asian markets.
From geopolitical risk to Canadian energy policy to the stocks
investors are watching closely, this episode takes you inside the
biggest debate in energy markets right now—whether this is just
another oil spike or the beginning of a much larger structural
shift.
Timestamps
00:00 Trailer
02:20 Intro
04:40 The buy side view: How we could see $200 oil
07:30 What about demand destruction?
09:40 Shocking for the U.S. President to flat out lie
12:00 Implications for midterm elections
14:00 IEA releasing 400M barrels
16:15 Expectations for a premium in crude
18:00 Why aren’t energy stocks reacting?
19:45 Is Josh investing like oil is going to $200? 5X
opportunities
23:00 Now Josh is more favourable to Canadian energy
stocks
24:00 Josh’s Pro Picks (JOY, ESY, CRGY)
44:15 The sell side view
48:00 Why haven’t Canadian oil & gas stocks
responded
50:35 What would lead to a higher for longer oil
price?
54:00 Implications for Canadian crude prices
57:00 Could production from Canada go any way to support the
deficit?
58:20 What names are best positioned to ride out the
volatility?
Sponsors
For over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians
achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca
today to discover how you can live a life well planned.
Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial. For more
information on ATB Cormark Capital Markets visit
https://ATB.com/inthemoney
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DISCLAIMERS
The information provided in this podcast is for informational
purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or
professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests
are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any
organization or company. The host and guests may maintain
positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always
consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before
making any investment decisions.
In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and
timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber
Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio
managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering
everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing
trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is
made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone
looking to sharpen their financial strategy.
Contact: questions@inthemoneypod.com
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