Everyone calls David Rosenberg a permabear but he says he’s fully
invested, just in completely different places than the consensus.
On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Rosenberg
breaks down why he’s still in the market despite sounding the
alarm on what he sees as extreme valuations, bubble-like
behaviour, and a dangerous level of investor complacency. From a
“teflon market” that shrugs off every shock, to an equity market
where investors are effectively paying to take risk, he explains
why this cycle feels eerily similar to the late-90s tech mania.
He pushes back on the dominant narrative around AI and government
spending, arguing the real economy is far weaker beneath the
surface. Strip out AI, and growth looks sluggish. Strip out a
handful of mega-cap names, and market returns look far less
impressive. For Rosenberg, this is a sentiment-driven market—one
where momentum is masking rising risks.
At the same time, Rosenberg is leaning heavily into an area most
investors have written off: government bonds. He’s bullish on
short-term bonds in both Canada and the U.S., arguing markets are
mispricing the path of interest rates. While investors brace for
more inflation and potential hikes, he sees disinflation
ahead—driven by weak wage growth and slowing demand—which could
force central banks to cut. In his view, that disconnect creates
a compelling opportunity in the front end of the bond market.
In Pro Picks, he lays out exactly where he is putting money to
work in addition to government bonds. He’s bullish on commodities
across the board—gold, base metals, energy infrastructure, and
agriculture—driven by long-term supply constraints and a shift
toward resource security. He also highlights defense as a stealth
tech play with strong earnings visibility, and sees clean energy
as a geopolitical trade tied to energy independence. His message
is clear: stay invested, but stay disciplined—because when the
cycle turns, valuation will matter again.
Timestamps
00:00
Trailer
02:10 Intro
04:15 Is Rosie surprised at the teflon market?
08:25 Echoes of 1999. Investors are paying to take on risk
12:15 Government bonds have a unique safety characteristic
14:25 We’ve reached the stage where people think the stock market
is riskless
16:05 Dave doesn’t follow the herd…ever
18:55 Dave’s model portfolio
23:10 Look at the economy ex AI
27:45 The midterms will end the gravy train
31:15: These things go in cycles, Dave isn’t going to time it,
and he’s going to invest very selectively
37:20 Hamilton ETFs: Mixed Asset Allocation ETF - MIX
39:30 Making a bet on the future of commodity inflation, Dave
likes the hard asset theme
42:45 Why Dave expects to see rate cuts not rate hikes
48:30 Why Dave likes the Canadian banks
53:10 Why Dave isn’t too worried about the USMCA
55:50: David Rosenberg’s Pro Picks (commodities, defence, clean
energy)
Sponsors
For over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians
achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca
today to discover how you can live a life well planned.
Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial. Visit
https://ATB.com/inthemoney for more information
The mailbag is sponsored by Hamilton ETFs. For more information
on the Hamilton Enhanced Mixed Asset Allocation ETF visit:
https://hamiltonetfs.com/etf/mix/
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