The AI boom is being financed with debt—and the numbers are
staggering.
The world's biggest tech companies are spending hundreds of
billions of dollars to build the infrastructure behind artificial
intelligence. But while investors focus on the stocks, Brian
Carney, Portfolio Manager at Mawer Investment Management, is
watching the credit markets—and he sees risks most investors are
ignoring.
On this episode, Brian, who manages the Mawer Global Credit
Opportunities Fund explains why Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Oracle
and others are becoming some of the largest borrowers in the
world, why credit markets may be underpricing risk, and why he
believes we're getting closer to a "reckoning" after years of
easy money and aggressive lending. He also shares why he's
skeptical of parts of the private credit market, what surprised
him about SpaceX's investment-grade rating, and why the next big
opportunity could emerge when investors least expect it.
Brian also makes the case that investors are too complacent about
America's fiscal situation. With deficits running at historically
elevated levels and government debt continuing to climb, he
argues the bigger risk may not be a U.S. default—but a shift in
investor sentiment that forces borrowing costs higher. What
happens if investors start demanding more compensation to finance
Washington's spending? And what could that mean for stocks,
bonds, and the broader economy?
In Pro Picks Brian shares three high-conviction bond ideas,
including AI infrastructure player CoreWeave, fertilizer producer
FMC Corp, and energy company Continental Resources. He breaks
down where he's finding attractive yields, how he's assessing
downside risk, and why he's keeping dry powder ready for a
potential market dislocation.
Whether you're an equity investor, bond investor, or simply
trying to understand how AI is reshaping global capital markets,
this conversation offers a perspective you won't hear often.
Timestamps
00:00 Trailer
02:15 Intro
04:30 Mawer’s credit opportunities fund
06:45 We’re on the verge of a reckoning in the credit
markets
10:25 What the spreads are telling us
12:25 The debt-fuelled AI funding boom
16:45 Will the spending pay off?
18:35 The question about who wins less important for credit
investors
20:15 Where does the money come from to meet the unprecedented
demand?
22:15 Does SpaceX’s investment grade rating make sense?
26:25 Hamilton Enhanced Mixed Asset Allocation ETF-MIX
28:25 Any signs of strain in the CDS market? And why Carney’s
portfolio is low on tech
31:55 The inflation question
35:25 How Carney is mitigating risk in the portfolio
37:25 The debt & deficit situation in the U.S. is out of
control
43:10 Brian’s Pro Picks
Sponsors
For over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians
achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca
today to discover how you can live a life well planned.
Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial. Visit
https://ATB.com/inthemoney for more information
The mailbag is sponsored by Hamilton ETFs. For more information
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