A year ago, Bob Thompson called commodities the trade of the
decade. Since then, silver miners, energy stocks and
commodity-focused funds have delivered massive gains. But with
gold down sharply from its highs, oil rolling over and investors
questioning whether the trade has become too crowded, is it time
to take profits—or is this just a correction within a much bigger
bull market?
In this episode, Bob Thompson of Thompson Investment Partners
explains why he still believes we're in the early innings of a
long-term commodities supercycle despite the recent weakness. He
walks through his famous "Mining Clock" framework, outlines where
he believes we are in the commodity cycle, and explains why gold,
silver, copper and oil all remain strong two years from now. He
also shares why the real risk may be hiding in technology stocks,
where he sees echoes of previous market bubbles and growing signs
that the capex cycle is nearing a dangerous stage.
In the Mailbag, Bob breaks down why he believes the recent
collapse in oil prices is a short-term positioning event rather
than the end of the energy bull market. He discusses physical
gold and silver ETFs, explains how he identifies capitulation
bottoms, and shares his outlook on several investor favourites
including Lundin Gold (LUG) and Altius Minerals (ALS). He also
discusses why management quality matters more than ever in the
resource sector and where he sees the best opportunities emerging
as sentiment deteriorates.
Bob revisits last year's winning ideas, including the Sprott
Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF (SLVR), the Dynamic
Active Mining Opportunities ETF (DXMO), and the Ninepoint Energy
Fund—all of which have delivered strong returns since his last
appearance. He then unveils three new high-conviction ideas: the
Fidelity Global Value Long Short ETF (FGLS), which he views as
portfolio insurance against a potential tech unwind; Nutrien
(NTR), a beaten-down agriculture leader he believes is positioned
for the next commodity cycle; and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF
(EWZ), which offers exposure to one of the cheapest major
commodity-producing markets in the world.
Timestamps
00:00 Trailer
02:10 Intro
03:39 Bob Thompson returns to the podcast
04:18 Did commodities move too fast?
05:22 Why investors are still underallocated
07:51 Gold’s pullback and what it means
09:20 Why gold is falling now
11:37 How to think about portfolio allocation
13:24 What could signal a bottom in gold and silver
16:33 What is the mining clock?
18:43 Mining cycle stages: 4 o’clock to 6 o’clock
21:03 Mining cycle stages: 7 o’clock to 8 o’clock
22:57 Mining cycle stages: 11 o’clock to 12 o’clock
24:33 The mining clock as a credit clock
26:23 Time arbitrage and the two-year investing test
28:11 Rapid fire: bullish or bearish in two years?
28:50 Hamilton Enhanced Mixed Asset Allocation ETF-MIX
30:53 ITM Mailbag: Oil prices, geopolitical premium, and the
supply story
37:26 Entry points for physical gold and silver
39:11 Lundin Gold: why Bob likes it (LUG)
43:06 Altius Minerals: royalty business strength (ALS)
49:33 Bob’s Pro Picks: FGLS, NTR, EWZ
Sponsors
For over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians
achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca
today to discover how you can live a life well planned.
Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial. Visit
https://ATB.com/inthemoney for more information
The mailbag is sponsored by Hamilton ETFs. For more information
on the Hamilton Enhanced Mixed Asset Allocation ETF visit:
https://hamiltonetfs.com/etf/mix/
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