João Cravinho: AFTER THE VIOLENT DIVORCE - WHAT APPROACH TO EU-SAHEL RELATIONS?

Irene Horejs in conversation with João Cravinho





AFTER THE VIOLENT DIVORCE: WHAT APPROACH TO EU-SAHEL
RELATIONS?





The relations of the EU with Central Sahelian States took a
dramatic turn in recent years. After a decade of conflict against
insurgencies and jihadist groups and amidst an ever deepening
security, economic and humanitarian crisis, the armies of Mali,
Burkina Faso and Niger seized power by a series of coup d’états
in 2021, 2022 and 2023 prompting harsh reactions by the West and
the organization of West African States ECOWAS. The Sahelian
military juntas reacted by ousting French troupes – until then
their main supporters in the fight against Jihadists – forced the
withdrawal of the UN peace keeping mission MINUSMA and the EU
civil military missions and engaged with Russia for military
support. They also withdrew from ECOWAS and created a new
regional body “the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES)”. France in
turn suspended all its cooperation, other EU Member states did
likewise and the EU stopped budget support operations which had
made up as much as 80% of the national budget in the case of
Niger.





Many predicted the collapse of the new regimes after the
withdrawal of Western military and financial support. Yet,
despite a worsening security and economic situation and
increasingly authoritarian rule, the military juntas and their
narrative of sovereignty seem to continue enjoying popular trust,
especially among the urban youth.





Given the multiple strategic interests in the region, EU Member
States largely agree on the need to remain engaged with the 3
countries in Central Sahel and tighten relations with the other
states in the wider Sahel. The discussion turns about how to
approach relations, how to materialize this engagement and how to
contain expansion of Russian and Turkish influence in this
region, which is so close to the EU´s southern neighborhood.





João Gomes Cravinho was appointed European
Union Special Representative for the Sahel on 1st of December,
2024 and is responsible to support the definition and
implementation of such new approach. He was Portuguese Minister
of Foreign Affairs (2022 – 2024), Minister of Defense of Portugal
(2018 – 2022) and had previously served as EU Ambassador to India
and to Brazil and as Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and
Cooperation of the Portuguese government.


 


Welcome:
Georg Lennkh, member of the Board, former
Austrian Special Envoy for Africa (2005-2010)





Moderation:
Irene Horejs, former EU Ambassador to Niger and
Mali