The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 016 - Manoeuvre Is Dead – But It Can Be Revived

Technological innovations such as ubiquitous drones have led to a
stalemate in the current war in Ukraine. Western observers who
see the war of attrition as a disadvantage ask whether it can be
transformed into a war of manoeuvre. We argue that this is only
possible if the West succeeds in exploiting competitive advantage
through innovations that are not accessible to or exploitable by
opponents. To show this, we first extend the dichotomy to a triad
of “guerrilla – attrition – manoeuvre”, including strategic
shifts such as “unfreezing and freezing”. Drawing on civil
literature on innovation, we argue that the unfreezing of
attrition into manoeuvre corresponds to exploiting competitive
advantages gained through innovation. However, because today's
cutting-edge innovations come from civilian industry, they lack
rarity and inimitability, and their respective advantages are,
therefore, not sustainable. Until this situation is rectified,
manoeuvre warfare will remain dead. The only way out is to
develop decisive non-civil innovations or to focus on those
competitive advantages, such as soft power, that the enemy cannot
exploit.


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