Of all countries sitting on the fence and trying to mediate,
Turkey has a unique profile and position. It is a NATO member, an
organization for which Russia and previously the Soviet Union
served as raison d'être or the foundational threat.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been increasingly
castigating the Western-centric international system. But as a
member of many Western institutions, Turkey is also a
beneficiary, and in a sense, part of the geopolitical West.
Meanwhile, Turkey also has maritime borders with both Ukraine and
Russia. Plus, Turkey is Russia's largest trade partner in the
Middle East and North Africa region. And it has competed and
cooperated with Russia through conflict zones in Syria, Libya and
Nagorno-Karabakh in recent years.
Compared to other contenders for mediation, Turkey has the
highest stakes in this conflict. The war is fundamentally
changing the geopolitics and balance of power in the Black Sea
region, and Turkey is a major Black Sea power.
That said, as the war drags on, Turkey's previous strategic
juggling act may no longer be feasible, particularly as Russia is
now more openly treated as an enemy of NATO and European
security.
Galip Dalay is CATS Fellow at the German
Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), an
associate fellow at Chatham House, and doctoral researcher in the
Faculty of History at the University of Oxford. Dalay’s pieces
and analysis have appeared on Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy,
Project Syndicate, Newsweek, Le Monde, Al Jazeera, CNN, National
Interest, Open Democracy, Middle East Eye and The World Politics
Review.
Gudrun Harrer, Senior Editor at Der Standard,
Lecturer on Modern History and Politics of the Middle East,
University of Vienna and Diplomatic Academy of Vienna
A ZOOM Livetalk, recorded on April 21, 2022
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