086 — Climate Uncertainty and Risk, a conversation with Dr. Judith Curry

I recently read the book "Climate Uncertainty and risk" written
by Dr. Judith Curry, who is  one of the leading US climate
scientists but also an important heterodox thinker. I loved her
book, not only because of her take on climate change, but also
because she covers a lot of essential topics that are applicable
in other complex problems as well.


Judith Curry is president of Climate Forecast Applications
Network (CFAN).  Previously, she was professor and chair of
the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia
Institute of Technology and professor at the University of
Colorado-Boulder in the department of aerospace engineering
sciences program in the atmospheric and oceanic sciences and
environmental studies program. Dr Curry published more than 200
reviewed scientific articles and gave 13 testimonials at US
congressional hearings.


In our conversation we discuss about the state of climate and
climate science. What role does uncertainty play in assessing
climate change and climate risk? Why urgency in measures might be
a disaster.


What role do carbon emissions play and can wind and solar energy
help in mitigating climate change? What role does or should
nuclear energy play? Do many prominent
environmentalists hate nuclear even more than climate
change?


However, uncertainty cuts both ways, what does this mean in terms
of climate, tipping points, systemic attractors, regime
shifts? 


What role do natural effects play in climate change, like
volcanoes (think of the year without summer)? How can we reduce
vulnerability and why does deindustrialization and becoming
poorer as a society not seem to be a clever way to handle complex
risks? At the moment it rather seems that we are crippling our
economy without reducing the footprint on the planet while at the
same time reducing our resilience.


“There are no solutions, only tradeoffs.”, Thomas Sowell


What does resilience mean on a societal level and what can we do
to achieve it? How is resilience connected to global existential
risks?


"At that point we are making the environment worse, and doing
nothing for the climate and we are messing up our economy over
this crazy net zero stuff."


Is energy transition on the scale some countries attempt to do
it, a risk far greater than risks related to climate change in
the 21st century?


What are wicked problems (showing complexity, uncertainty and
ambiguity)? Why do predict than act approaches (which work for
tame problems) not work on wicked problems?


"Climate change is the mother of all wicked problems."


What is the utility of models in general and climate
specifically?


“This is exactly what models are for—to serve as working
hypotheses for further research.”, Ludwig von Bertalanffy


How do climate models work? What is a scenario and how can
scenarios be of use in assessing climate change? 


Why did we see such a heatwave this summer and autumn? What are
likely reasons and what does the hot summer and August of this
year tell us about anthropogenic climate change and the next
decades?


How to deal with extreme risks that are unlikely, like a
Carrington Event? What are microgrids and how could the help
making a society more resilient? What is the difference and
utility of caution, precaution and the precautionary principle?
Why is the precautionary principle problematic and how could a
proactionary principle helt?


What are principles of robust decision making? How do
incrementalism and local decision making contribute? Is the seed
— select — amplify (Meyer, Davis) idea and antifragility
connected?


Why do we see deep quality problems and politicisation in
science? How is gate keeping of major institutions abused to stop
critical discussion, including top journals like Nature and
Science? Why did cancel culture blossom in academia and create a
toxic intellectual environment?


"The whole incentive system has become completely perverse."


Careerism, ideology or money? Which is harming science the most?


“Big Science may destroy great science, and the publication
explosion may kill ideas. Ideas, which are only too rare, may
become submerged in the flood.”, Karl Popper


Should we separate science and activism or is a scientist
ethically required to become an activist under certain
conditions? 


"Once you became a political activist, it is game over for your
credibility as a  scientist."


However, being a scientist and activist for a politically popular
topic is currently highly rewarded.


Can people handle complexity or should we simplify complex topics
to easy to understand soundbites? And if so, who does the
simplifying? Should we hide the scientific debate or even cancel
it, to be able to send a simple message?


"In the old days, disagreement was the spice of academic debate
and life. Now we are out to cancel our opponents."


References


Judith Curry


Website and Blog of Dr. Judith Curry

CV

Judith Curry, Climate, Uncertainty and Risk, Anthem Press
(2023)

Judith Curry, Klima: Unsicherheit und Risiko (2023)



Other Episodes


Modeling

Episode 79: Escape from Model Land, a Conversation with
Dr. Erica Thompson

Episode 68: Modelle und Realität, ein Gespräch mit Dr.
Andreas Windisch

Episode 53: Data Science und Machine Learning, Hype und
Realität — Teil 1



Existential Threats

Episode 76: Existentielle Risiken

Episode 74: Apocalype Always

Episode 45: Mit »Reboot« oder Rebellion aus der Krise?

Episode 42: Gesellschaftliche Verwundbarkeit, ein Blick
hinter die Kulissen: Gespräch mit Herbert Saurugg



Complex problems

Episode 72: Scheitern an komplexen Problemen?
Wissenschaft, Sprache und Gesellschaft — Ein Gespräch mit Jan
David Zimmermann

Episode 69: Complexity in Software

Episode 37: Probleme und Lösungen

Episode 80: Wissen, Expertise und Prognose, eine
Reflexion

Episode 27: Wicked Problems

Episode 25: Entscheiden unter Unsicherheit

Episode 23: Frozen Accidents



Science, Quality and Stagnation

Episode 67: Wissenschaft, Hype und Realität — ein
Gespräch mit Stephan Schleim

Episode 65: Getting Nothing Done — Teil 2

Episode 64: Getting Nothing Done — Teil 1

Episode 28: Jochen Hörisch: Für eine (denk)anstössige
Universität!

Episode 18: Gespräch mit Andreas Windisch: Physik,
Fortschritt oder Stagnation

Episode 16: Innovation und Fortschritt oder Stagnation?





Other Reference


Guinevere Glasfurd, The Year Without Summer: 1816 - one
event, six lives, a world changed, Two Roads (2020)

Thomas Sowell, Intellectuals and Society, Basic Books (2012)

Christopher Meyer, Stan Davis, It's Alive: The Coming
Convergence of Information, Biology and Business, Texere
Publishing (2003)

Björn Lomborg, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us
Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet, Basic
Books (2020)

Roger Pielke Jr. on Substack

Carrington Event: Lloyds, Solar Storm Risk to the North
American Electric Grid (2013)

John Ioannidis, How the Pandemic Is Changing Scientific Norms
(2021)

Karl Popper, The Myth of the Framework: In Defence of Science
and Rationality, Routledge (2014)