Raimund Löw in conversation with Cas Mudde, Erin Kristin Jenne
& Reinhard Heinisch
REALIGNMENT IN AMERICA.
How the Midterm Elections 2026 are Shaping the
Future
The midterm elections will be a crucial test of the political and
social divisions that have increasingly shaped the United States.
One third of the Senate and all members of the House of
Representatives will be elected, making control of Congress a
decisive factor for the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidency.
If the Democrats succeed in winning control of Congress, Trump
could effectively become a lame-duck president during the second
half of his term. A Democratic majority could significantly
constrain the administration’s ability to pass legislation,
control government spending, and pursue some of its domestic
priorities. At the same time, however, the administration has
various instruments at its disposal to influence the political
environment, like intimidation, political pressure, restrictive
voting measures, and aggressive rhetoric which can affect voter
turnout and the willingness of citizens to participate in the
elections. Do such strategies primarily mobilize Trump’s
supporters, or can they also discourage opposition voters from
going to the polls?
Another important question is the role of foreign policy.
Traditionally, US midterm elections have been dominated by
domestic issues such as the economy, immigration, healthcare, and
inflation. Yet conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, relations
with China, NATO, and the future of US support for Ukraine could
increasingly influence voters and shape the broader political
debate. This is particularly relevant for Europe, where the
outcome of the elections could have significant consequences for
transatlantic relations, European security, and the future of
NATO. What lessons can European democracies draw from the
increasing polarization of American politics, and how should
Europe prepare for a potentially more unpredictable and
confrontational United States?
Cas Mudde, Professor of International Affairs /
Political Science, University of Georgia (online)
Erin Kristin Jenne, Professor of International
Relations, Central European University
Reinhard Heinisch, Professor of Political
Science, University of Salzburg
Moderation:
Raimund Löw, Journalist, author, and historian,
head of Falter Radio
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