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My deepest forecasting belief is that you can better understand
the future if you focus on the behaviors that never change
instead of the events that might.


And those behaviors have a common denominator: They follow the
path of least resistance of people trying to simplify a complex
world into a few stories that make sense and make them feel good
about themselves.


Simple stories, feel-good stories. Those are some of history’s
most seductive beliefs, and they always will be.


Here are a few that stick out.

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