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vor 1 Jahr
I had the great pleasure to discuss the efforts by the Europeans
and Zelensky to obtain security guarantees from the US. The
Ukrainian army is collapsing, and Zelensky needs to get the US
pulled into the war with security guarantees. Peace agreements
must remove the incentives for restarting the fighting. While
security guarantees could deter Russia, it would create an
incentive for Ukraine to restart the fighting to get US
assistance with reconquering territories. Zelensky has previously
lied about a Russian missile attack on Poland to pull NATO into
the war, and security guarantees could leave the US in a dilemma
between having its deterrent discredited or going to war against
the world’s largest nuclear power. Offering Ukraine’s natural
resources to the US is an attempt by Zelensky to buy security
guarantees and Washington’s recognition that he is the legitimate
leader of Ukraine. While Trump will allow Zelensky to buy
legitimacy, he is unlikely to provide security guarantees as the
US already holds all the cards and has immense leverage over
Ukraine.
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