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vor 1 Jahr
I had the great pleasure of speaking with Professor John J.
Mearsheimer and Alexander Mercouris about the stalling of peace
negotiations as the US faces resistance from the Europeans and
Zelensky. The US will likely increase pressure on Zelensky, and
the Europeans can be divided and played against each other.
However, the subsequent uncertainty signals to the Russians that
any future deal could fall apart quickly. Therefore, Russia have
great incentives to seize more territory to ensure Eastern
Ukraine cannot be used as a frontline against Russia in the
future. The peace talks will likely slow down over the next few
weeks, and a massive Russian offensive can be expected. The
alternative to a peace agreement will likely be the collapse of
the Ukrainian army and the dramatic increase in casualties, which
is common at the final stages of a losing war. This will result
in a humanitarian disaster and a severely weakened Ukraine that
will fuel instability for decades to come.
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