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  4. How To Win At NFL Player Props In 2025 (Episode 905 with Adam Levitan, Mark Dankenbring, Cort Smith)

Adam Levitan, Mark Dankenbring, and Cort Smith assess the NFL
Player Prop betting landscape ahead of the 2025 NFL Season,
discussing everything they have learned from decades of player
prop betting, how sportsbooks are adapting, and how they will
apply this knowledge in the upcoming season.





In this episode, we discuss:





- Whether it’s better prioritize betting volume or ROI


- What level of performance does it take to update prior
projections and baselines?


- Why are Best Ball and Redraft League impacting betting lines?


- What analysis has told us about our processes over the years?


- What days of the week do we find provide the biggest
edges? 





Timestamps:





0:00 - Intro 


2:29 - How The Markets Have Changed


8:14 - Market Openers 


12:12 - When to Place Bet


18:28 - Expanding Markets & What to Look For


22:52 - Updating Priors & Baselines 


25:42 - Best Ball & Redraft Hype Carrying Over Into Markets


32:44 - Edges We Should Be Betting & Volume vs. ROI


35:22 - Alt/Long Shot Bets


37:17 - Analyzing ETR’s Results Over The Last Four Years





Want ETR on your team this season? 





Our 2025 NFL Draft Kit Pro has you covered with:





Draft Rankings & Tiers

Research & Analysis Articles

Draft Strategy Content

In-Season Roster Management

Trade Calculators

Discord Community






Subscribe now at
https://subscribe.establishtherun.com/nfldraftkitpro/ 





Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app now to draft your $20
Best Ball lineup to play for a share of $15 million—and get a
second ticket to play FREE for a share of $15 million. That’s two
chances to win big without ever setting your lineup again. Draft
One, Get One—only on DraftKings. The Crown Is Yours.





https://dkng.co/BestBallETR 





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