#659: Michael Mauboussin — How Great Investors Make Decisions, Harnessing The Wisdom (vs. Madness) of Crowds, Lessons from Race Horses, and More

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Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) is Head of
Consilient Research on Counterpoint Global at Morgan Stanley
Investment Management.


Prior to joining Counterpoint Global, Michael was Director of
Research at BlueMountain Capital, Head of Global Financial
Strategies at Credit Suisse, and Chief Investment Strategist at
Legg Mason Capital Management. Michael originally joined Credit
Suisse in 1992 as a packaged food industry analyst and was named
Chief U.S. Investment Strategist in 1999.


Michael is the author of The Success Equation: Untangling Skill
and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, Think Twice:
Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition, and More Than You Know:
Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places. More Than You
Know was named one of "The 100 Best Business Books of All Time"
by 800-CEO-READ, one of the best business books by BusinessWeek
(2006), and best economics book by Strategy+Business (2006).
Michael is also co-author, with Alfred Rappaport, of Expectations
Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns. 


Michael has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia
Business School since 1993 and is on the faculty of the Heilbrunn
Center for Graham and Dodd Investing. He received the Dean's
Award for Teaching Excellence in 2009 and 2016 and the Graham
& Dodd, Murray, Greenwald Prize for Value Investing in 2021.


Michael earned an A.B. from Georgetown University. He is chairman
emeritus of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute, a
leading center for multidisciplinary research in complex systems
theory.


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*


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*


[07:12] Latin roots.


[09:14] No business education? No problem!


[12:15] The best food industry analyst.


[15:36] Consilience.


[19:58] Complex adaptive systems.


[23:26] Diversity.


[26:23] The wisdom of crowds.


[32:42] The minimum effective dose of cognitive diversity.


[36:02] Designing experiments.


[43:49] Against the Gods and Complexity.


[49:56] Value investing and the Santa Fe Institute.


[53:57] A brief 21st-century asset class tour.


[57:47] Base rates and horses.


[1:06:16] Good vs. great investors.


[1:13:22] Expanding options when making decisions.


[1:18:56] Favorite failures.


[1:20:35] Counteracting overreliance on experts.


[1:24:34] Intuition.


[1:34:15] Time management tenets.


[1:40:59] Parental resources.


[1:43:42] Perspectives gained by learning about complex adaptive
systems.


[1:46:12] Recommended reading.


[1:47:32] Michael's billboard.


[1:50:33] Parting thoughts.


*


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Gilbert, Terry Crews, Sia, Yuval Noah
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Phelps, Bob Iger, Edward Norton, Arnold
Schwarzenegger, Neil Strauss, Ken Burns, Maria
Sharapova, Marc Andreessen, Neil Gaiman, Neil de
Grasse Tyson, Jocko Willink, Daniel Ek, Kelly
Slater, Dr. Peter Attia, Seth Godin, Howard
Marks, Dr. Brené Brown, Eric Schmidt, Michael
Lewis, Joe Gebbia, Michael Pollan, Dr. Jordan
Peterson, Vince Vaughn, Brian Koppelman, Ramit
Sethi, Dax Shepard, Tony Robbins, Jim
Dethmer, Dan Harris, Ray Dalio, Naval
Ravikant, Vitalik Buterin, Elizabeth
Lesser, Amanda Palmer, Katie Haun, Sir Richard
Branson, Chuck Palahniuk, Arianna Huffington, Reid
Hoffman, Bill Burr, Whitney Cummings, Rick
Rubin, Dr. Vivek Murthy, Darren
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