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Global Questions About the US Elections

Global Questions About the US Elections

Thoughts on the Market vor 2 Jahren

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2:05

Our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research reflects on
Japanese investors’ interest in the outcome of the upcoming
presidential vote in the US.

----- Transcript -----

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan
Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research.
Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives,
today I'll be talking about the upcoming US elections.

It's Wednesday, May 29th at 10:30am in New York.

I recently returned from Tokyo, having attended and presented at
Morgan Stanley's inaugural Japan summit. And while I was asked to
present on topics ranging from our fixed income markets outlook
to the role of Japan in an increasingly multipolar world, my
one-on-one conversations always tracked back to the same client
question: who will win the US election.

Of course this is a matter of great importance globally. But the
investor in Japan is particularly interested in whether possible
election outcomes could disrupt their rosy economic outlook –
either through new tariffs or increased geopolitical tensions
between the US and China, and also North Korea. To that end,
many were focused on polls showing former President Trump with
sufficient support to win the election, asking how predictive
this would be of the ultimate outcome.

Here our view remains, for all investors, that polls aren't
giving a reliable signal yet. The election is still several
months away. And Trump doesn't have leads beyond a normal polling
error in sufficient states to win the presidency.

So, investors still need to consider the potential impacts of a
variety of US electoral outcomes. That's perhaps not the most
settling answer for investors, who strive to limit uncertainties.
But we think it's the most honest one. And as we've been doing in
this space all year, we'll continue to walk you through the
outcomes, policy impacts, and resulting market effects you need
to be aware of.

Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a
review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with
a friend or colleague today.