Original release date July 23, 2024: Our Head of Global Autos
& Shared Mobility discusses what makes humanoid robots a
pivotal trend with implications for the global economy.
----- Transcript -----
Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Adam Jonas, Morgan
Stanley’s Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility. Today I’ll
be talking about an unusual but hotly debated topic: humanoid
robots.
It’s Tuesday, July 23rd, at 10am in New York.
We've seen robots on factory floors, in displays at airports and
at trade shows – doing work, performing tasks, even smiling. But
over the last eighteen months, we seem to have hit a major
inflection point.
What's changed? Large Language Models and Generative AI. The
current AI movement is drawing comparisons to the dawn of the
Internet. It’s begging big, existential questions about the
future of the human species and consciousness itself. But let’s
look at this in more practical terms and consider why robots are
taking on a human shape.
The simplest answer is that we live in a world built for humans.
And we’re getting to the point where – thanks to GenAI – robots
are learning through observation. Not just through rudimentary
instruction and rules based heuristic models. GenAI means robots
can observe humans in action doing boring, dangerous and
repetitive tasks in warehouses, in restaurants or in factories.
And in order for these robots to learn and function most
effectively, their design needs to be anthropomorphic.
Another reason we're bullish on humanoid robots is because
developers can have these robots experiment and learn from both
simulation and physically in areas where they’re not a serious
threat to other humans. You see, many of the enabling
technologies driving humanoid robots have come from developments
in autonomous cars. The problem with autonomous cars is that you
can't train them on public roads without directly involving
innocent civilians – pedestrians, children and cyclists -- into
that experiment.
Add to all of this the issue of critical labor shortages and
challenging demographic trends. The global labor total
addressable market is around $30 trillion (USD) or about
one-third of global GDP. We’ve built a proprietary US total
addressable market model examining labor dynamics and humanoid
optionality across 831 job classifications, working with our
economics team; and built a comprehensive survey across 40
sectors to understand labor intensity and humanoid ability of the
workforce over time.
In the United States, we forecast 40,000 humanoid units by 2030,
8 million by 2040 and 63 million by 2050 – equivalent to around
$3 trillion (USD) of salary equivalent. But as early as 2028 we
think you're going to see significant adoption beginning in
industries like manufacturing, production, warehousing, and
logistics, installation, healthcare and food prep.
Then in the 2030s, you’re going to start adding more in
healthcare, recreational and transportation. And then after 2040,
you may see the adoption of humanoid robots go vertical. Now you
might say – that’s 15 years from now. But just like
autonomous car – the end state might be 20 years away, but the
capital formation is happening right now. And investors should
pay close attention because we think the technological advances
will only accelerate from here.
Thanks for listening. And if you enjoy the show, please leave us
a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market
with a friend or colleague today.
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