Sources with Alex Heath Archiv

Alex and Ellis sit down with Andon Labs co-founder Lukas Petersson to talk about what it looks like when AI moves out of the chat window and into the real world. They discuss AI-run stores and vending machines, why people behave differently when interacting with AI, and what happens when machines start managing businesses on their own. They also get into the idea of humans working for AI, whether all software is about to disappear, and how close we really are to that shift.

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What happens when Silicon Valley becomes the subject of its own satire?

Alex and Ellis sit down with The Audacity showrunner Jonathan Glatzer to talk about building a TV series that takes on Big Tech, the battle for your private data, and the power dynamics shaping Silicon Valley — and Hollywood too. They also go deep into the role of satire in critiquing power, AI's role in the writing process, and why AMC was the only network brave enough to greenlight the show.

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Alex and Ellis talk about why they are getting less hyped on OpenClaw, the Social Network sequel that might actually be great, and why recent attacks on Sam Altman signal a real reputational crisis for the AI industry. Then they're joined by Melanie Perkins, co-founder and CEO of Canva, fresh off the company's biggest product announcement in over a decade. They discuss Canva's shift from design platform to AI platform and what 9 years of profitability actually buys you. They also get into how Canva trained its own AI model, why every app on your computer is changing with AI, and why so many of Ellis's clients want to disrupt Canva.

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Alex and Ellis talk about OpenAI’s acquisition of TBPN, the tension between media and corporate ownership, and why so many people in AI seem to be working themselves into the ground. Then they’re joined by Marvin von Hagen, CEO of Poke, an AI assistant that lives in your texts and connects to everything from your email to your calendar. It's basically OpenClaw for normies. They discuss why Marvin believed in AI agents early, why he thinks texting is the best interface for AI, how Poke handles automation and security, why he sued Meta, and why a billionaire ended up paying $136,000 a month for Poke.

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Alex and Ellis talk about why Codex is becoming central to OpenAI's strategy and the competition with Claude. Then they’re joined by Mina Fahmi, CEO and co-founder of Sandbar, who is building a smart ring that acts like an AI interface for your entire life. They discuss Mina’s path from neural interface research at MIT and CTRL-Labs to consumer hardware, why he thinks the next big AI product has to feel personal and controllable, and what it means to design a wearable that remembers, responds, and stays out of your way.

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Alex and Ellis talk about navigating ethics in media and programming the pod, the rise of film photography, and Alex’s trip to OpenAI. Then they’re joined by Granola co-founder Sam Stephenson to talk about building one of the breakout AI meeting tools. They discuss why meetings are still where decisions actually get made, the London tech scene, opening an office in SF, and how Granola is evolving as a product.

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Alex and Ellis break down why SXSW no longer feels like a true tech conference and how Nvidia’s GTC has become the new center of gravity for the industry. Then they’re joined by Mercury CEO Immad Akhund to talk about building one of the most important fintech companies for startups. They discuss how Mercury thinks about plugging into AI tools like Claude, Immad's side gig as a VC, the SF poker scene, and more.

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Alex and Ellis talk about Alex’s visit to Anthropic’s headquarters as Claude downloads surge and the company faces growing scrutiny over its stance on government AI use. They discuss AI culture inside the labs, image generation experiments with Claude, and why some companies are betting that coding—not multimodal—is the fastest path to AGI.

Then they’re joined by Daniel Kuntz, the creator of Starboy, a tiny AI-powered creature designed to hang off your bag like a charm. They talk about why he chose to build a toy instead of another productivity tool, the idea of “hardware as art,” and why he thinks Silicon Valley has forgotten how to make fun products. They also discuss designing Starboy with former Disney animators, why it doesn’t connect to your phone, the influence of fashion and collectibles, and his belief that AI companions and productivity gadgets are heading in the wrong direction.

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Alex and Ellis talk about using Claude to organize their digital lives, the rise of agent platforms like Dreamer, and a mysterious AI hardware sighting in San Francisco. Then they’re joined by Liz Reid, VP and Head of Search at Google, to talk about what it’s like running one of the most influential products on the internet during the AI boom. They discuss how AI overviews are changing search, the difference between Google Search and the Gemini app, whether agents could become the main users of the web, and how Google is responding to the rise of tools like ChatGPT. Liz also reflects on her two decades at Google, the early days of Google Maps, the challenge of fighting AI-generated slop online, and how she thinks about the future of the open web and search itself.

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Alex and Ellis break down the viral AI essay that tanked stocks and debate whether agents could end white-collar work as we know it. Then they’re joined by Reddit co-founder and CEO Steve Huffman to talk about fighting AI slop, why Reddit has resisted becoming traditional social media, and how the platform is navigating bots, moderation, and creators. They discuss prediction markets, Reddit’s anti-self-promotion culture, the challenge of onboarding new users, local communities, government censorship pressure, age verification laws in Australia, and Reddit’s AI data licensing deals with companies like Google and OpenAI.

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Nearly every tech CEO I talk to right now is obsessed with two things: AI and prediction markets. In that order, but barely.

Yesterday, I interviewed Substack CEO Chris Best about his new integration with Polymarket, which he confirmed is the deepest outside partnership Substack has ever done. It lets writers embed live prediction market data directly into their posts, and Polymarket has joined Substack’s ads beta by paying select creators to include markets in their stories.

Best wouldn’t get into the financial details of the deal itself, though sources tell me Polymarket has paid X and other similar platforms for the same kind of exclusive partnerships. I pushed Best on why he chose an exclusive with Polymarket over also integrating with Kalshi. He deflected and said he wanted to find a partnership that “worked really well.”

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What’s going on here is bigger than Substack. Prediction markets are subsuming the internet, whether you like it or not. They’re getting embedded into the surfaces where people already consume news, opinion, and analysis. Despite the strong, negative reaction many people have to what prediction markets represent, I expect more integrations like the one Substack announced in the coming weeks and months.

Best told me he’s a prediction market nerd who traces his interest back to the sci-fi-adjacent fascination that’s long animated a certain kind of tech founder. He pointed to two moments that made it feel real for him: watching prediction markets call election results faster than the New York Times needle, and using Polymarket odds on the TikTok ban to make an actual business decision about how Substack should prepare. “The fact that I could see a market signal on, hey, there’s a substantial chance that this event is gonna happen, and then potentially change how you plan your business, felt very powerful.”

There are real concerns here that Best acknowledged but didn’t fully resolve. Prediction markets sound elegant in theory: the wisdom of crowds, priced in real time. But as I told Best, the two questions that matter most are who is on the other side of the trade and how disputes get resolved. There’s also the bigger societal issue of whether betting on everything is even a good idea.

None of these issues are ironed out. Insider trading via prediction markets feels rampant, and meaningful cases to hold offenders accountable have yet to be filed. Polymarket specifically has historically used a crypto-based resolution mechanism, and credible research indicates significant token concentration. That means the people who hold the most tokens can effectively control outcomes. Best said he hadn’t gone deep on the specifics there but agreed that “if they have a resolver that doesn’t work, the market won’t work.”

What’s happening now is a land grab. The two main prediction market companies, Polymarket and Kalshi, are racing to embed themselves on every platform where people pay attention, and the CEOs of these platforms are mostly willing to ablige because they’re obsessed with what prediction markets represent. To this tech leader class, the potentially negative ramifications of how these markets actually work today are secondary to the long-term value they’ll bring. As Best put it to me: “I’m a ship and find out guy.”

Notion CEO Ivan Zhao this week on ACCESS

Thanks again to Ivan for coming on this week’s show. Listen or watch wherever you get podcasts.

The art of scooping on TBPN

Thanks to John Coogan and Jordi Hays for having me live in the TBPN Ultradome earlier today. We talked about how I approach scoops, using AI, the state of tech media, prediction markets, and a lot more.

This week in Sources

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Sources is a newsletter by Alex Heath about the AI race, featuring scoops, unique analysis, and exclusive interviews. Every week, Sources is read by thousands of decision makers in tech, finance, policy, and media. Click here to learn more.

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Ellis tells Alex about his storytelling speech for AI founders at Andreessen Horowitz, and they discuss how OpenAI beat Meta to hire the founder of OpenClaw. Then they’re joined by Notion co-founder and CEO Ivan Zhao to talk about the rise of AI agents. They discuss building custom agents inside Notion, his own AI workflow, why he's focused on hiring young people, and why he thinks every software company needs to become agent-friendly to survive.

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Alex and Ellis recap the AI ads at the Super Bowl and talk about Jony Ive showing Alex the first-ever electric Ferrari Luce he designed. Then, they sit down with Fidji Simo, CEO of Applications at OpenAI, for a wide-ranging conversation about where ChatGPT is headed next. They talk about ads coming to ChatGPT, people having emotional attachment with AI, working with Sam Altman, the state of Sora, and the shift from a reactive chatbot to a proactive personal assistant.

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Alex and Ellis analyze AIs talking to each other on Moltbook, the implications of Elon Musk merging SpaceX and xAI, new moves in the OpenAI versus Anthropic coding race, and a favorite AI app getting a controversial redesign.

Then they’re joined by Victor Riparbelli, CEO of Synthesia, to talk about how he turned deepfakes into a business that just raised $200 million. They discuss how AI video is changing how we interact with each other, trust on the internet, and whether raising the bar for corporate videos also raises new risks.

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