This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Archiv

With Vladimir Putin putting Russia’s nuclear deterrent on high alert, could the war take an atomic turn? Or is this merely a tactical move from the Kremlin? And what could the Ukraine crisis mean for nuclear policy in the coming years? Dr Laura Considine, politics professor at Leeds University, joins Arthur Snell to explain the history of nuclear proliferation, atomic weapons in the context of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and the direction of nuclear policy in the coming years. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “North Korea developed its nuclear weapons secretly while party to the non-proliferation treaty.” “What we’re seeing here is nuclear weapons being used as a means of enabling aggression.” “A lot of tactical nuclear weapons are bigger than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.” “Deterrence is all about what didn’t happen, and it’s very hard to analyse what hasn’t occurred.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As war rages on Russia’s European front, tensions are also rising in the East with neighbours Japan, as Russian forces conduct military drills on the disputed Northern Territories, claimed by Japan. Japanese Deputy Cabinet Secretary Koichiro Matsumoto joins Arthur Snell to explain the complicated history between Japan and Russia, what Putin’s invasion means for Asian security, and how the Japanese people have rallied around Ukraine. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Russia’s invasion undermines the foundation of not only Europe, but the entire international order.” “Japan has condemned Russia’s invasion since the very beginning.” “Like many world neighbours, Russia and Japan have numerous unresolved and difficult issues.” “Japan’s path to a ‘Russia-Free’ economy is not an easy one.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It has been over a month since Russia invaded Ukraine, but with Kyiv still yet to fall Kremlin officials have announced plans to withdraw troops from the region. Where did Russia’s war go so wrong? Is this retreat real, or is Putin wargaming for something bigger? Dr Mike Martin, a former British Army officer and author of Why We Fight, joins Arthur Snell to discuss Russia’s apparent withdrawal, and where the conflict could go next. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/carrd.co/  “The Russians only have around 200,000 soldiers, but you need around a million to hold Ukraine.” “The people at the top of the Ukrainian army would’ve served in the Soviet army, so they are aware of how it operates.” “Russia have a number of commitments that tie up their forces… they’re very worried about China.” “Syrians and Central Africans are being paid by Russia to fight. They wouldn’t be calling on these people if they had a formed reserve.” “As far as the Ukrainians are concerned, this is a fight for national survival, and the public are behind them.” “Russia are shifting their goals because they need some kind of domestic victory.” “If you look through history, Russian leaders don’t survive when they lose wars.” “A fighting retreat is probably the most difficult land manoeuvre to execute.” “If costs aren’t imposed on Russia like they weren’t in 2014, then they will come again and finish the job off.” “Even for the propagandists in the Kremlin, using nukes is a step too far.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has Western nations looking to the Middle East for their oil supplies, but are they obliging? And could the conflict in Europe spark another round of uprisings across the Arab world? Human rights activist and authoritarianism expert Iyad el-Baghdadi joins Arthur Snell to discuss what Putin’s war means for the Middle East.  We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “MBS has a personal like of Putin, and in some ways he’s modelled himself on him.” “America is not going to defend MBS against a popular uprising.” “The Saudi Army cannot vanquish ragtag militias in Yemen. It needs Western security guarantees.” “Bread is the staple across the Arab region... Egypt imports 80% of its wheat from Ukraine or Russia.” “Riots about bread prices quickly turn into riots about corruption, mismanagement and repression.” “The only group who can check a dictator and end his power for good is his own people.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 2014 Macer Gifford left his job as a city trader to go and fight ISIS in Syria. Now he’s continuing his work as an international volunteer, this time in the Ukraine conflict. In an illuminating conversation, Macer tells Arthur about the parallels between wars in Syria and Ukraine, the role of international volunteers in the conflict, and his plans for a frontline medical unit to support the Ukrainian people. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “I was there as the bombs began to fall, and seeing people huddling on the metro felt like the blitz.” “A lot of international volunteers I was with in Syria are already on the ground in Ukraine.” “My plan is to create a medical unit with volunteers, and to deploy them on the frontline to support both the Ukrainian military and civilians.” “We’re going to see tactics similar to Syria where Russia bombs civilian centres into submission.” “If the economic might of the west can bring Russia to its knees then we might get a negotiated settlement.” “What Ukraine needs now is enthusiastic volunteers who are willing to defend every inch of territory.”  DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has Finland questioning its tradition of military non-alignment. Janne Korhonen, university professor and political activist, dials in to tell Arthur how the debate on NATO membership has shifted following Putin’s war.  We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “When Russia invaded in 1939, Finland was in quite a similar position to Ukraine today.” “We joined the EU because we were afraid of Russia, but going to NATO at that time would’ve been too much.” “The defence of Finland is not just a question for the military, but for the whole of society.” “The last poll showed 62% of Finns are in favour in joining NATO, a complete reversal from six months ago.” “My guess is that Finland will be NATO members before the end of this year. It’s now or never.” “These threats Russia is making about Sweden and Finland joining NATO are nothing new. They’ve been making them for over 20 years.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

India’s tradition of military non-alignment has come under huge strain with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The world’s second most populous country has tried to maintain a neutral stance, but has come under sharp criticism from the West as casualties from the conflict mount.  What explains India’s stance, and what does it hope to achieve? Harsh Pant, International relations professor at Kings College London’s India Institute, joins Arthur Snell to discuss. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “This crisis has exposed India’s vulnerabilities, they’re very reliant on Russia for their defence capabilities.” “As this conflict has dragged on, the Indian Government has become increasingly uncomfortable with its position.” “Ironically India is the only country that needs both Russia and the West on its side.” “The Covid period showed that over reliance on China is not healthy.” “Russia and China getting together is perhaps one of the worst nightmares for India.” “India is drifting away from Russia and towards the West, that is a long-term trend.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Two weeks into Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and things aren’t going to plan. Kyiv is still yet to fall, and Russian troops have failed to make substantial progress against fierce Ukrainian resistance.  Defence analyst and military historian Dr Peter Caddick-Adams joins Arthur Snell to pinpoint where Russia’s shameful war went wrong… and what could happen next. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Russia still has conscription, and we in the west don’t understand how badly conscripts are treated.” “Zelensky has become Churchill. His words and the way he delivers them have a real sense of validity.” “Standing up to Putin is like standing up to Josef Stalin. It’s simply not an option.” “While Russia wants to control Ukraine, it doesn’t want to occupy it. Their army is nowhere near big enough.” “The more Putin pulls off his gloves, the more the world is turns back to 1989.” “This is a war where history is really relevant. There are parallels with city battles from World War 2.”  DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The bogeyman of NATO expansion was Putin’s pretext to invade Ukraine. Can NATO act now to stop Russia’s war – or would that trigger nuclear conflict? Is a No-Fly Zone practical? Former NATO representative in Moscow and now Chatham House associate fellow John Lough tells Arthur Snell about the latest state of play with NATO and the long-term implications of the most dangerous security crisis in Europe since 1945. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “This operation is not playing out as Russia expected. They thought the blitzkrieg would work – but they have fatally misread Ukraine.” “Two generations of Ukrainians have been born into freedom. The heroism they’ve shown in recent days is extraordinary.” “Will we see an incident at the border as NATO attempts to deliver ammunition to Ukraine? There’s a lot of danger there.” “We are prosecuting our own hybrid warfare now – economic war… Russia will go back to the Soviet Union on steroids.” “The disaster in Ukraine can only lead to Putin leaving office a lot earlier. And it may bring the entire system down.” “Russia has entered a quagmire that will lead to an embarrassing defeat. No amount of state propaganda can cover up that.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Putin has few friends – but one is Belarusian despot Alexander Lukashenko. Belarusian democracy activist and reporter Hanna Liubakova talks to Arthur Snell from exile in Lithuania, to explain how Lukashenko dragged her country into the war – and what the world can expect from Putin’s stooge. What price will Belarus pay for Lukashenko’s fealty? We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Lukashenko has made us a full-fledged aggressor in this war… We in Belarus believe this is high treason.” “Most Belarusians don’t want this war. They don’t want to threaten our neighbour.”  “Lukashenko is giving away our sovereignty and independence to Russia… He’s not making the major decisions. Putin is.” “We had seen Donbass, Crimea, Georgia, Moldova… but we could not imagine that a fully-fledged attack on a sovereign country could take place.” “The weaker Lukashenko is, the weaker Putin is.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kyiv is under siege but Putin’s invasion is going badly. How far will Russia’s ruler go to win his monstrous gamble? And what can the West do to stop him? In the first of our irregular Ukraine War bulletins we talk to Ukrainian journalists Artyom Liss and Kyiv-based Romeo Kokriatski about the balance of power in Ukraine, the resolve of President Zelensky, and Putin’s doomsday psychology. We’ll be releasing special Ukraine War bulletins on an irregular basis as new developments arise. Help us keep podcasting, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/doomsdaywatch “It seems crazy that it has only been six days. At this point, I can’t even remember what peace was like.” – Romeo Kokriatski “I don’t think anyone could have predicted this level of carnage, this level of destruction or this level of madness.” – Artyom Liss DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As tensions rise on the Ukrainian border, are we looking at the first ground war in Europe since 1945? In an emergency roundtable edition of Doomsday Watch, Arthur Snell asks a panel of experts what’s driving Putin’s thinking, how far he and Russia are willing to go to achieve their aims, and if a disastrous conflict can be averted. Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. “The question is less, ‘Is Russia going to invade?’ and more ‘When will Russia invade?’” - Romeo Kokriatski “The only person who knows what Putin is planning to do is Putin himself. It all depends on his mood when he wakes up in the morning.” - Artyom Liss “Putin saw the fall of the Soviet Union as a catastrophe. I wouldn’t fault anyone for thinking that he may want to rebuild the empire.” - Romeo Kokriatski “Younger people who are more western-oriented, are quite embarrassed by Russia’s position on Ukraine.” - Artyom Liss “The longer this goes on, European partners are likely to become more aligned with each other .” - John Lough “Russian is only scared of NATO in that NATO prevents Russia from bullying its neighbours around.” - Romeo Kokriatski DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this series we’ve looked at under-reported threats to global stability, from the psychology of Xi Jinping to the coming water crisis to the War on Truth. But what happens next? In this extended end-of-season edition, Arthur Snell steps back to look at the big picture with experts in geopolitics, future warfare and the Chinese, Russian and American superpowers. Can the world pull itself from the brink – or is our Long Peace coming to an end?  Season Two of Doomsday Watch is coming soon. Help us shape it and get new episodes early when you support us on Patreon. •  “What we’ve seen is the loss of the structures that have contained violence.” – Dr Mike Martin •  “Americans are tired – tired of not only of being at war, but also as being perceived as being warmongers.” – Candace Rondeaux •  “People will fight for a cause. That cause can be nationalism, to serve a particular master or to promote a different vision of society.” – Margaret MacMillan •  “You saw it with defeat in Afghanistan: the West does not have confidence in its own values, nor the staying power to implement them anywhere else.” – Ian Dunt •  “We are in a very dangerous situation, where we face the potential of weapons systems outside of human control that perhaps can’t be stopped.” – Margaret MacMillan •  “I worry now that we’re entering a stage where we might have a big war. I think there’s a 50-50 chance.” – Dr Mike Martin •  “All around me I see people wanting to take on populism, who want a better kind of world that makes sense.” – Ian Dunt DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Cold Warriors of the postwar world never dreamed that Western democracies would come to rely on a global information network – and that our very openness could be turned against us. As the stories of Brexit, COVID and Trump coalesce into one nightmare tale of disinformation and weaponised lying, Arthur Snell asks whether democracy can survive in a post-truth world. If you control the information space, do you control the future? And after the pandemic, can we withstand the infodemic? Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. • “If you’ve got enough money, you can ensure that people hear your talking points day in day out, hour after hour.” – Amil Khan • “COVID was a means to test these weapons. Climate denial is the next battleground, and it will make the anti-lockdown and COVID stuff look like child’s play.” – Darren Loucaides • “If tech companies can’t moderate memes and text, how on Earth are they going to moderate the Metaverse?” — Nina Jankowicz • “Soviet Union was Terminator 1: bulky and ungainly. Now Putin’s Russia is Terminator 2, very fluid and adaptable.” – Peter Pomerantsev • “Our systems are threatened not by people who are suffering but by comfortable middle class people who are bored and looking to go on a crusade.” — Tom Nichols • “What is shocking is how fast people will jump from a failure of policy itself to the idea that the whole edifice of liberal democracy needs to be junked in favour of a celebrity strongman.” — Tom Nichols • “Our openness is a weakness. We can’t go into Russia and broadcast like the BBC can – but RT can come here and say anything it likes.” – Nina Jankowicz DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices