This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Archiv

Welcome to This Is Not A Drill, the brand new weekly show about geopolitical threats, where they come from and how to fight them. We’re building on the legacy of Doomsday Watch to look even more widely about the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever-more dangerous. And we’ve got a brand-new host: Gavin Esler, former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight. Gavin will be talking to highly experienced diplomats, academics and journalists to guide you through the world’s worsening geopolitics nightmare. New episodes start weekly from Weds 14 Nov 2023 – and two days early for Patreon supporters. Follow now on your favourite app. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week, for the second time since Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, world leaders met to discuss the challenges facing the NATO security alliance. With two previously isolationist nations, Finland and Sweden, newly joined or about to join - this week’s Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania spoke of a newly energised organisation. But perhaps predictably in an age of war in Europe - there remain tensions and very big questions. The biggest of all - what to do about Ukraine? To discuss what it means for the war in Ukraine; the nature of global security, and the still-dominant role the USA plays in this post-WW2 organisation, Arthur Snell is joined by:  - Dr Ulrike Franke: senior fellow at the European Council on foreign relations  - John Lough: Chatham House associate fellow of the Russia & Eurasia Programme and the former NATO man in Moscow  - Steven Pifer: former US ambassador to Ukraine and senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assitant Producer Liam Tait. Art by Jim Parrett. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After an astonishing seven days in Russia, Doomsday Watch is back to answer some of the biggest questions following the aborted Wagner rebellion.  How will Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived insurrection affect Russia and its war of aggression on Ukraine? Few understand the machinations and manoeuvres of Russian politics like Christopher Steele - former head of the Russia desk at MI6 and the man behind the famous Trump dossier in 2016, which investigated Russia’s links to US politics.  The director of consultancy Orbis Business Intelligence joins Arthur Snell to discuss the corruption which rots Russian elite society and drove Prigozhin’s challenge. And speaking from Kyiv - Doomsday Watch regular Dr Jade McGlynn - author of recent books Russia’s War and Memory Makers and researcher at King's College London. Arthur and Jade discuss developments in Ukraine and how Russian society is responding to Vladimir Putin’s attempts to shore up control following the rebellion.  “A lot of this revolves around corrupt wealth, and vast amounts of it.” – Christopher Steele “I suspect that there was a falling out between Prigozhin, Shoigu and others over the spoils of war in Ukraine.” – Christopher Steele “I think a lot of Ukranians are, at the very least, enjoying watching the spiders fight in a jar, as they call it.” – Jade McGlynn Get bonus material from this series plus early access to future releases when you support Doomsday Watch on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant Producer: Liam Tait. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The slow-motion breakdown of relations between Wagner boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin and Russia’s military has now accelerated into a fast-forward coup. Wagner mercenaries have taken control of Rostov - a Russian city which houses the headquarters of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine. And now they are marching on Moscow. A worried Putin has made a national TV address and may even be onboard his special plane fleeing the country. Host Arthur Snell spoke to Doomsday Watch favourite Dr Mike Martin, military expert, academic and former soldier, for an emergency podcast on the latest developments. "These events effectively are the beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine" “Putin will not be the president of Russia in six months’ time” “This is basic 101 on how to run a country - you don’t lose the monopoly of force” Get bonus material from this series plus early access to future releases when you support Doomsday Watch on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Design by James Parrett. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The finale of our history of the Ukraine war – for now. As Ukraine’s 2023 counter-offensive begins and Putin responds with mere nihilistic destruction, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Now Arthur Snell takes stock of the war so far. Ukraine’s fight for freedom could preserves the security of Europe’s hinterlands, and Russia’s failures have shown how NOT to fight a war. But history tells us that the fall of great powers puts global peace in grave peril. How can we prevent chaos in Russia spilling out across Europe and perhaps beyond? Arthur speaks to: • Serhii Plokhy, Prof of Ukrainian History at Harvard and the Author of ‘The Russo-Ukrainian War’ • Luke Harding, journalist and author of Orwell-prize shortlisted ‘Invasion’ • Iuliia Osmalenko, former Ukrainian diplomat and Head of Globsec Kyiv Office • Dr Mike Martin, military analyst and author of ‘How to Fight A War’ • Oleskii Plotnikov, serving Ukrainian soldier and human rights lawyer Get bonus material from this series plus early access to future releases when you support Doomsday Watch on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk Photograph: Getty Featuring poetry by Yuliya Musakovska, read by the author, and by Anastasia Afanasiva, read by translator Olga Livshin Incidental music in order of appearance: • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra • ‘O Lord Hear My Prayer’ by Dmitry Bortnyansky performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir • ‘A Quiet Night (Tyhoyi Nochi)' by Natalia Tsupryk, performed by SANSARA Choir Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Design by James Parrett. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How Putin’s war has reshaped the world. In Ep.7: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered the rules-based international order. Now the strongmen are scrambling to take advantage. Arthur Snell looks at vast powerplays of Russian information warfare and Chinese influence across Africa and the developing world. Will China see financing Putin’s faltering Forever War as a good bet? And what is in store for Putin now that there are Russian resistance units active inside Russia itself? Hear the finale of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War right now when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk • “Putin no longer believes he can win on the battlefield to the necessary level. He has to outlast the west. It’s all he’s got.“ – Mark Galeotti • “By targeting fissures in the UK and US and increasing grievances, Russia can keep us polarised and keep us distracted.” – Nina Jankowicz. • “There are centuries of slavery baked inside the Russian psyche. But it doesn’t give Putin an eternal lease on the Russian soul.” – John Sweeney • “Every global problem that we’ve got can be traced back to authoritarians.” – Brian Klaas • “More than ever before the Kremlin needs to divert attention away from the mess that’s unfolding in its own country.” – Arthur Snell • “If the Ukrainians humiliate his killing machine… then Vladimir Putin will leave the Kremlin in a box.” – John Sweeney Photograph: Getty Incidental music in order of appearance: Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony ‘The Blessed I have Already Chosen’ by Maksym Berezovsky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir ‘Thy Resurrection’ performed by the Music of Kyiv-Pechersk Monastery Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra ‘O Lord Hear My Prayer’ by Dmitry Bortnyansky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Telling the history of the war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.6: How Ukrainian bravery and steadfastness amazed the world. These are the human stories of how a country much smaller than Russia was able to stand together under Putin’s astonishing onslaught – why a shovel is a soldier’s best friend – and how Ukrainian civilians who never thought of themselves as fighters found themselves rushing towards the front line. Hear next week’s edition of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War immediately when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk • “I was terrified of dying a wasteful death… but there was pride too. We’ve learned we’re more united and braver than we thought.” – Romeo Kokriatski • “Ironically it’s Russian’s repeated attacks on Ukraine that propelled this country’s sense of purpose and unity.” – Arthur Snell • “Before August 2022 it was hard to convince anyone that Ukraine could win this. After September I was struggling to convince people that victory wasn’t inevitable.” – Jack Watling • “Hopefully this war makes people around the world understand that freedom is not free.” – Olga Tokariuk Photograph courtesy Juan Barreto Incidental music in order of appearance: • ‘A Quiet Night – Tyhohi Nochi’ by Natalia Tsupryk, performed by SANSARA Choir • ‘O Lord, Hear My Prayer – Dmitry Bortniansky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony ‘A Quiet Night – Tyhohi Nochi’ by Natalia Tsupryk was commissioned and recorded by SANSARA choir at the Ukrainian Cathedral in London, directed by Tom Herring. Hear the full track on SANSARA’s latest album Traces here: https://platoon.lnk.to/traces Find out more about the project on their website here: https://www.sansarachoir.com/a-quiet-night Follow SANSARA @SansaraChoir and on your preferred streaming platform. Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Telling the history of the war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.5: As Putin’s assault falters and his army degenerates into retreat and atrocity, Russia’s self-image as a bulwark against fascism falls into tatters. Arthur Snell looks at the incompetence, factionalism, corruption and failure to plan which created this debacle – how Russia remains obsessed with the Great Patriotic War – how Chechnya and Georgia provided dry runs for Ukraine — and the cocktail of self-destructive impulses, self-pity and authority-worship that still drive ordinary Russians to support the war. Hear next week’s edition of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War immediately when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk • “At Hostomel, the Russian obsession with information security meant that they didn’t brief their own troops until it was too late.” – Jack Watling • “The Russian Army is a top-down organisation where initiative is frowned upon. It specialises in plodding assaults.” – Mike Martin • “You see Russia’s self-destructive tradition in its drinking and suicide rates, in the way power is distributed. We need to worry about that urge and who gets pulled into its vortex.” – Peter Pomerantsev • “The Russian attitude is, we saved the West from fascism. Now look at these ingrates.” – Jade McGlynn • “Putin was a pretty mediocre director of the FSB. He was always ‘talk big, fight small’ and Ukraine is his first truly big war, thrown together not by generals but by him and a few spooks.” – Mark Galeotti Photograph courtesy Anatolii Stepanov Incidental music in order of appearance: • Thy Resurrection’ performed by the Music of the Kyiv-Pechersk Monastery • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony • Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Telling the history of the war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.4: Putin planned to break Europe’s resolve under the twin effects of his assault on Ukraine and his energy war. Instead he bound NATO and the EU together more tightly than ever. This is the story of how Putin’s recklessness created the ‘Zeitenwende’, the turning point in European history where German illusions about Russian cooperation faded away… and Ukraine became a new bulwark of freedom.  Hear next week’s edition of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War immediately when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk • “Putin was sending a message to the West. You guys aren’t serious. You failed in Iraq. You were kicked out of Afghanistan. Are you really going ot do anything to stop me?” – Arthur Snell • “Europe is now trying to focus its geopolitical muscle against Russia… Ukraine will be a shield against Russia into the future.” – Liana Fix • “Zelenskyy may be the perfect figurehead… Stoic, committed, brave, taciturn at times, but inspirational.” – Arthur Snell • “I worry that, if the Russians win, what does Putin do next? What if he looks at other ‘historic Russian lands’?” – Steven Pifer Photograph courtesy Alexey Furman Incidental music in order of appearance: ‘The Blessed I Have Already Chosen’ by Maksym Berezovsky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Warning: The episode contains distressing material. In Ep.3 of our history of Putin’s war: As the Russian assault stalls, the Ukrainian city of Mariupol becomes a source of humiliation for Putin. He resolves to obliterate it and its people. War crimes on the scale of WWII ensue.  Arthur Snell talks to journalists, eyewitnesses and campaigners to reveal the enormity of Russian atrocities across Ukraine – the targeting of hospitals and children – and the forced disappearances and murders of Ukrainian resisters. This is the story of how the self-declared “anti-Nazi” Russian army brought mobile crematoria and mass killing into the heart of Ukraine… and what is being done to bring those responsible to justice. Hear next week’s edition of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War immediately when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk “When Putin’s blitzkrieg failed, the Russians reverted to type, destroying Mariupol and other cities and killing thousands of civilians.” – Arthur Snell “We watched doctors operating on a dying child with tears in their eyes. They were screaming, Show this to Putin. He is killing our children.” – Evgeniy Maloletka “Ukraine used attritional defence to bleed – literally bleed – the Russians of men and material.” – Mike Martin “This felt like the V1 and V2 attacks on British civilians during the Second World War. The human suffering is off the scale.” – John Sweeney Photograph courtesy Alexander Nemenov Incidental music in order of appearance: O Lord, Hear My Prayer - Dmitry Bortniansky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony The Blessed I have Already Chosen by Maksym Berezovsky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Telling the history of a war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.2: Russia thought they’d take Kyiv in three days. Instead Putin’s invasion has gone down as one of the most infamous fiascos in military history – while Ukraine’s courage and fighting skill has stunned the world. How did Putin get it so wrong? And how did Zelenskyy’s defiance transform the conflict? Arthur Snell talks to military analysts and historians to unearth the truth about the pivotal first weeks of the war: catastrophe for Russia, glory for Ukraine. Behind the cruelty and monstrous waste a strange question emerges: Did a dysfunctional, shambolic Russia really intend to invade Ukraine at all? Hear next week’s edition of Doomsday Watch: The Ukraine War immediately when you support the podcast on Patreon: http://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk “How did one of the world’s great military powers manage to make such a mess of things?” – Arthur Snell “The Russians didn’t bring much military equipment. What they did bring was parade uniforms to march through Kyiv when it was all over.” – Peter Caddick-Addams “The Russian FSB spent vast sums of money preparing for the collapse of the Ukrainian Government, which they confidently expected…” – Arthur Snell “ Putin is a very 19th-century figure. He believes that Russia has a birthright to be a great power.“ – Mark Galeotti “The experience of any Russian who lived through the 1990s is that reality can disappear around you at any time. People learned to negotiate chaos.“– Peter Pomerantsev “The central Russian experience is the Great Patriotic War… They think their moral right to dictate to others comes from 1945.” – Jade McGlynn Photograph courtesy Ceng Shou Yi/NurPhoto Incidental music in order of appearance: Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5 performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra ‘Thy Resurrection’ performed by the Music of Kyiv-Pechersk Monastery ‘The Blessed I Have Already Chosen’ by Maksym Berezovsky, performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Telling the history of a war that’s reshaping the world. In Ep.1: How Russia’s febrile history, Putin’s paranoid resentment and Western complacency led to an historic crime against a peaceful nation, the destruction of the rules-based international order, the largest European land action since the Second World War… and a conflict of unprecedented brutality. In weekly episodes Arthur Snell talks to soldiers, civilians, analysts and journalists to tell the story of the war and capture the enormity of Russia’s crimes. This is the first draft of history. Want to hear Ep.2 right now, without ads? Support the show on Patreon at doomsdaywatch.co.uk to get every new episode a week early. “Putin has just started an epic global conflict between democracy and authoritarianism, one whose outcome is still in doubt.” – Arthur Snell “To see these places – deep mud, wet, such cruel conditions – you’d think it’s not too far from Verdun or Passchendaele.” – Paul Conroy “We don’t do what we do out of hatred, we do it out of love for justice and for the people we care about. This is a battle of life and darkness.” – ‘George’, Georgian National Legion Photograph courtesy Paul Conroy Incidental music in order of appearance: Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 5, performed by Jason Weinberger and the WCF Symphony. ‘Thy Resurrection’ by Dmitry Bortnyansky performed by the Music of Kyiv-Pechersk Monastery. ‘O Lord Hear My Prayer’ by Dmitry Bortnyansky performed by Kyiv Chamber Choir. Gustav Mahler’s Symphony Number 9 (First Movement) performed by the Polish National Radio Symphony Orchestra Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Special edition: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy embodies the courage of his nation, and his charisma and determination have made him a hero to the free world. But what this former actor-comedian turned war leader tick? Arthur Snell talks to Steven Derix, co-author of Zelensky*: Ukraine's President and His Country with Marina Shelkunova, about the astonishing story of an actor who played a president on TV before being thrust into the role of real-life wartime leader. (Yes, there are two ways of spelling it) Support Doomsday Watch on Patreon and help us develop the next series of our globe-spanning documentaries: www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk Photograph: Getty Images Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com . Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Special bonus edition. Our latest series was a whirlwind tour of the apocalypse, from Ukraine to the Arctic to cyberspace and beyond. What did Arthur Snell learn? Our presenter sits down with Andrew Harrison for the big takeaways. Has Putin already lost the Ukraine War? Can a paranoid Republican Party really govern? Could there be a nuclear conflict after all? Plus questions from our splendid Patreon backers. We’re already hard at work on a new and very different series of Doomsday Watch. Support us on Patreon to help make it a reality: https://www.patreon.com/doomsdaywatch Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com . Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices