Election Analysis: Young Thais, Old Parties...New Tricks? [S8E32]

Tech Fail Alert! The last 5 minutes of our discussion was cut off
by dastardly internet Gremlins, but we said most of what we
wanted to say anyway. 


In a follow-up to the recent Thai election, Greg and Ed do their
best to make sense of the unexpected outcome. Greg defers to Ed's
poli sci knowledge, and Ed struggles through it despite his
expertise being American politics. Before the election, polls
indicate it was a three-horse race between the progressive
faction, the Thaksin clan, and the conservative faction led by
the current Prime Minister. Although the progressive faction was
expected to grab a plurality, none of the three were expected to
have the majority necessary to form a government - so the main
question was going to be: Which two factions would team up?


Alas, the conservative faction ended up with a decisive victory,
upending many of the gains that the progressive faction made in
the last election, especially in rural areas. The margin of
victory was such that the issue of coalition-building was almost
moot due to the plethora of small parties to build the majority.


So what led to the conservative victory? Ed notes that the
current Prime Minister capitalized on his incumbency to ride a
nationalist wave driven by the recent conflict with Cambodia.
This was somewhat expected, but not to the extent that came to
pass. Other factors, such as the lack of a charismatic leader
among the progressive faction could also have been a factor. Greg
chalks it up to people just being tired of the constant
back-and-forth where nothing ever really changes, so they just
chose to stay home and not vote for anyone - basically, they
prefer stability to fighting for change.


Last, the guys discuss the myriad claims of mistakes in the vote
count and hope the Election Commission orders some recounts in at
least some districts.